A US-Iran peace deal and a record SpaceX IPO spark a risk-on move across markets. These are the key levels to watch

Key takeaways:

• A US-Iran peace deal has been announced, with a signing scheduled for Friday 19 June, removing a geopolitical risk premium that had weighed on markets for months.
• The Strait of Hormuz is set to reopen, oil has fallen sharply, and risk appetite has returned across equities and crypto.
• SpaceX completed the largest initial public offering (IPO) in history on Friday, capping a wave of enthusiasm around the technology sector.
• Stocks, gold and Bitcoin (BTC) are all trading higher, with several major indices pushing towards record highs.
• Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh holds his first policy meeting on Wednesday, the main forward risk to the rally.

Markets have started the week in a clear risk-on mood. President Trump has announced a peace deal between the US and Iran, with both Tehran and Pakistan confirming the agreement and a signing ceremony scheduled for Friday 19 June in Switzerland. The deal is expected to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to toll-free shipping, and the prospect of that supply route returning has pushed oil sharply lower and lifted risk appetite across the board.

The result has been a broad move higher. European and Japanese equities have pushed into record territory, US indices are trading close to their highs, and Bitcoin has reclaimed the 65,000 area as capital rotates back towards risk. Gold, which had recently been breaking down, is now testing resistance, an unusual pairing in a risk-on environment that we look at more closely below.

Adding to the enthusiasm, SpaceX completed its market debut on Friday. At roughly $1.75 trillion it was the largest IPO on record, and the stock rose around 19% on its first day. The listing has become a focal point for a market already gripped by artificial intelligence (AI) optimism, with OpenAI and Anthropic both reported to be preparing listings of their own, and the largest US technology companies committing to record levels of capital spending on AI infrastructure.

That backdrop has revived an old debate, one we looked at in our previous coverage of whether the AI trade is absorbing the risk appetite that once flowed into crypto. Bulls point to real demand and recurring revenue underneath the buildout, noting that SpaceX’s Starlink unit is profitable and helps fund the group’s wider ambitions, a contrast with the loss-making pure-play AI names. Sceptics counter that the entity investors are actually buying is loss-making at the group level following its merger with xAI, and that it appears priced for a future that has not yet arrived. SpaceX is unlikely to enter the S&P 500 in the near term, as it does not meet the index’s profitability requirement, but it could join the Nasdaq 100 within weeks under a faster inclusion rule, which may trigger mechanical buying from passive funds.

The main risk to the mood arrives on Wednesday, when the Fed concludes its June meeting, the first chaired by Kevin Warsh, who was sworn in last month. Markets see almost no chance of a change in interest rates, with the policy rate expected to stay at 3.50% to 3.75%, so the focus falls on the updated projections and Warsh’s tone. With headline inflation having risen to 4.2% in May, its highest since April 2023, a hawkish signal could test a rally that is currently running on the peace dividend and AI optimism.

Below, we look at the key levels across the S&P 500, gold and Bitcoin.

S&P 500

The S&P 500 bounced from around 7,250 on 11 June, holding above its recent lows, and has since recovered towards a major resistance zone. Price is now testing the area around 7,530, which sits inside a local reload zone.

This is a pivotal test. A rejection at 7,530 could potentially mark a lower swing high, the first in many months, and hint at an early shift in the index’s structure. With risk sentiment improving on the back of the Iran deal, though, a clean reclaim of the zone could instead open the door back towards the record high near 7,620, and potentially new all-time highs beyond it.

The wider backdrop offers a tentative guide here. Both the Nikkei and the Euro Stoxx 50 have already broken into new all-time highs, so a similar move from the S&P 500 would not be out of step with its global peers. For now, 7,530 is the level that matters on the upside, with 7,250 the support to watch on any renewed pullback.

Gold

Gold is retesting the resistance area around 4,350, the level it had recently broken down through. The reaction here matters for the broader structure. A failure to reclaim 4,350 would potentially leave another lower high in place, keeping the recent downtrend intact.

A reclaim of this general resistance area, on the other hand, could open the door towards the 4,500 region above. If 4,350 caps the move instead, gold could potentially see another leg lower towards the 4,000 region through the week.

The wider backdrop is worth keeping in mind here. Gold is testing resistance while equities and Bitcoin push higher, a notable divergence given the improvement in risk sentiment, and one that leaves this level as a clean tell for which way the metal resolves next.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin has bounced firmly from the 60,000 support region and is now working its way higher, testing the next local resistance zone to the upside around 65,800. The recovery fits the broader risk-on move, with capital rotating back towards risk as the Iran deal lifts sentiment.

The immediate focus is that 65,800 zone. A break and reclaim above it could potentially open the way back towards the 70,000 resistance area, which is where the more significant test begins. On the downside, 60,000 remains the key support to watch, and holding above it keeps the recovery structure intact.

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