5 min readCryptocurrency markets are showing signs of life this week, with the total market capitalisation rising 1.5% to $2.54 trillion, its highest level since mid-March.
Bitcoin has gained around 5% over the past week, while other major cryptocurrencies are also moving higher. Ethereum and Ripple are also up around 7%, while SOL has gained 4.5%.
Risk-on shift driving crypto rebound
One of the key drivers behind this week’s rally has been a broader risk-on move across global markets. Investor sentiment has improved on optimism surrounding a potential lasting truce between the US and Iran. As a result, oil prices have declined and Treasury yields have eased, prompting capital to rotate back into risk assets such as equities and cryptocurrencies.
This shift has been reflected in traditional markets. The Nasdaq 100 has pushed to a fresh record high above 26,000, while the S&P 500 has also reached new highs above 7030.
This reinforces the growing link between crypto and traditional markets — with the likes of Bitcoin and Ethereum increasingly trading as macro-sensitive assets rather than purely crypto-driven instruments.
Key risk: markets may be pricing in too much optimism
The main risk to this outlook and recovery is that markets may be moving ahead of the fundamentals. Much of the recent rally appears to be pricing in a successful diplomatic outcome. If negotiations fail or geopolitical tensions escalate again — particularly if oil prices rise — recent gains across both crypto and equities could unwind quickly.
Conversely, credible progress towards peace could allow the risk rally to extend further.
Ethereum outperforms as on-chain activity improves
Ethereum has been one of the stronger performers, holding above $2,300 for a second consecutive day and rising around 7% over the past week.
It is currently among the top-performing 10 large-cap cryptocurrencies, supported not only by the macro risk-on move but also by improving on-chain fundamentals.
Network activity is strengthening.
The 14-day moving average of total transaction counts on the Ethereum mainnet has climbed to a record high, surpassing levels seen in February.
According to CryptoQuant data, active addresses — which had been trending lower in January— are now rising again, signalling a recovery in user activity and engagement.
At the same time, staking demand is accelerating.
Since the start of the month, the total amount of staked ETH has increased by around 550,000 ETH, bringing the total to approximately 39.28 million ETH. Daily staking inflows are also rising, pointing to strong investor participation.
However, this strength is not yet reflected across all parts of the ecosystem.
Ethereum’s total value locked (TVL) has remained broadly flat at around $55.6 billion over the past month, suggesting that capital inflows into DeFi protocols have yet to meaningfully pick up.
This divergence indicates that while investor interest in ETH is improving, broader ecosystem activity is still recovering.
ETH technical analysis
Ethereum continues to trade within a rising channel that has been in place since early February. The price has broken back above its multi-month descending trendline from the $4,950 peak and is now testing resistance at $2,385 — the March high.
A sustained break above $2,385 would create a higher high and open the door towards $2,500 , the psychological level, followed by $2,880, the 200-day SMA.
On the downside, initial support sits around $2,110 — the confluence of the 50-day SMA and the prior trendline. A break below $1,940, the March low, would signal a lower low and a potential shift back to a bearish structure.
Trading involves risk.
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