Bitcoin tracks stocks lower but not higher. Is the AI trade absorbing all the risk appetite?

Key takeaways

• Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen alongside equities through this year’s risk-off waves, but it has not joined the rebounds, raising the question of whether it is now only correlated to the downside.
• A hotter-than-expected US jobs report and a chip-led sell-off knocked the S&P 500 around 3.5% off its early-June record, while Bitcoin slid back towards its 60k support.
• Trump says Israel and Iran are looking to agree an immediate ceasefire, and Iran has announced an end to its military operations, lifting both markets in a risk-on bounce.
• The S&P 500 has reclaimed the 7,350 area but closed back below its 20-day EMA for the first time since early April, with 7,500 the next hurdle overhead.
• Bitcoin defended 60k with a bullish Sunday close, and reclaiming the 70k region, where the 20-day EMA sits, is the make-or-break level for a genuine recovery.

For most of 2026, Bitcoin and US equities have moved as one whenever risk appetite drains away. Every macro shock, from sticky inflation to the Israel-Iran conflict, has pulled both lower together. The problem for Bitcoin is what happens next. When stocks have recovered, Bitcoin has often been left behind.

That asymmetry is on display again. Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report came in far hotter than expected, with payrolls rising 172,000 against forecasts near 80,000. The print pushed Treasury yields higher and weighed on high-valuation technology, and combined with a sharp chip-stock sell-off it dragged the S&P 500 around 3.5% off its early-June record near 7,620. Bitcoin fell in sympathy, sliding back towards the 60k support.

Today, both are bouncing. President Trump said that Israel and Iran are looking to agree an immediate ceasefire, and Iran’s armed forces announced an end to military operations, reviving risk appetite and easing the energy and inflation fears that had hung over markets. Oil has weakened and equities have firmed on the news. The question for Bitcoin holders is whether it can ride that recovery higher, or whether it once again only tracks stocks on the way down.

Is the AI trade absorbing the risk appetite?

The correlation numbers tell part of the story. Bitcoin’s 30-day correlation with the S&P 500 climbed to around 0.74 earlier this year, well above its longer-run average near 0.30, behaving far more like a high-beta technology stock than the independent, “digital gold” hedge it is often sold as. Yet through the equity rebound since late March, Bitcoin did not follow. It kept sliding.

One explanation is where the marginal capital is going. The AI build-out has become the dominant trade in markets, and it appears to be drawing in money, attention and even crypto’s own infrastructure. More than $70bn in AI and high-performance computing contracts have been announced across the listed Bitcoin mining sector, with some miners potentially deriving up to 70% of revenue from AI by the end of 2026. Many are funding that shift by selling Bitcoin, and the network’s hashrate posted its first first-quarter decline since 2020 as capital rotated towards compute.

So when risk appetite returns, it may be flowing into the AI trade rather than into crypto. That could leave Bitcoin exposed to the downside of every risk-off move while missing much of the upside. It is worth stressing this is a feature of the current regime rather than a permanent rule, the elevated correlation is itself an outlier that has broken down before around crypto-specific catalysts. But for now, the pattern points one way.

S&P 500 on the daily

After setting a record near 7,620 at the start of June, the S&P 500 sold off around 3.5% to test the 7,350 support, an area that had previously acted as a launchpad. The index closed back below its 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) on Friday, the first time it has traded under that average since reclaiming it in early April, a sign that short-term momentum has cooled.

Today’s risk-on bounce has lifted price back towards 7,436. The immediate test is the 20-day EMA, currently near 7,450, followed by the 7,500 resistance zone just above. Reclaiming that band could signal the pullback was a healthy reset within the broader uptrend. A failure to do so, with 7,350 giving way, could open the door towards the 7,100 to 7,200 region, where the 50-day EMA near 7,265 also sits.

Bitcoin on the daily

Bitcoin is trading near $63,500 after defending its 60k support, with Sunday’s daily candle closing as a bullish reversal off the level, a sign buyers stepped in where it mattered. With risk assets bouncing on the ceasefire news, the obvious upside target is the 70k region.

That level is pivotal. The 20-day EMA sits right around 70k, with the 50-day EMA just above near $72,900, turning the 70k to 73k band into significant overhead supply. Reclaiming 70k is the make-or-break level for Bitcoin, the price it needs to take back to confirm it can follow the stock market higher rather than simply bleed lower. Above there, the next major resistance is 85k. On the downside, losing 60k could expose the high-50ks, near 57,990.

We asked last week whether the AI boom was leaving crypto behind. Today’s bounce gives Bitcoin a chance to answer. Until it can reclaim the 70k region and rally with equities rather than only fall with them, the asymmetry that has defined 2026 looks set to continue, and the risk appetite returning to markets may keep finding its way into the AI trade rather than into Bitcoin.

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