3 min read Brent crude is pulling back on Monday after a strong rally on Friday. The drop came after President Trump waived new sanctions on Russia, which could bring more Russian fuel exports back to the market. Still, with shipping through the Strait of Hormuz disrupted and Iran stepping up attacks on tankers, supply risks haven’t gone away.
4-hour chart
Brent has been trading in a fairly clean uptrend on the 4 hour chart since bouncing from the 95 area in late September and early October. Since then, price has been printing higher highs and higher lows.
Price is now coming back down to test the 104.5 area, which lines up with the 4 hour 20 period Exponential Moving Average (EMA). This makes it an important level to watch.
- If 104.5 holds: we could potentially see another move higher, towards the higher time frame resistance zone starting around 110.
- If 104.5 fails: price could potentially drop back towards the 95 area, which has acted as support before.
As always, oil remains very sensitive to the situation in the Middle East, so any headlines around Hormuz or US and Iran talks could move price quickly.
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