Ethereum Price Prediction: Cooler Inflation and Fed Hold Lift ETH. Is There Upside to Come?

Ethereum, together with Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market, is rising as investors digest the latest FOMC rate decision, alongside weaker-than-expected U.S. growth and cooler-than-expected inflation data. 

The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the Core PCE index, rose 0.1% month-on-month in June, down from 0.3% in May and below the 0.2% forecast. On an annual basis, Core PCE slowed to 3.3% from 3.4%. 

The data comes after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged yesterday at 3.5% to 3.75% but the vote split was more hawkish than expected. While Fed Chair Kevin Warsh reiterated the central bank’s commitment to returning inflation to its 2% target, he provided few clues on how policymakers intend to achieve it. As a result, markets have scaled back expectations of a September rate hike. 

Weaker-than-expected U.S. GDP, which showed the economy growing 1.5% in Q2 versus forecasts of 2.1%, has also weighed on the U.S. dollar, providing support for Ethereum and the broader crypto market. 

However, uncertainty surrounding the Fed’s policy outlook has pushed the 30-year Treasury yield to a 19-year high, which could act as a headwind for Ethereum and other non-yielding assets. 

Institutional demand remains weak, BitMine keeps accumulating 

ETH ETFs recorded net outflows of $18.6 million on Wednesday, following two consecutive days of net inflows. However, ETH ETFs remain on track to post a fourth straight week of net inflows after eight consecutive weeks of outflows and to post net inflows in July after two months of net outflows. 

Institutional demand still needs to strengthen meaningfully for Ethereum to sustain a meaningful move higher. 

Separately, Ethereum treasury companies continue to offer support. BitMine, the largest Ethereum treasury company, purchased a further 9,946 ETH, worth around $19.4 million at current prices, after buying 7,430 ETH the previous week. 

That takes BitMine’s holdings to 5,787,414 ETH, or around 4.8% of Ethereum’s circulating supply, leaving it within reach of its long-term target of accumulating 5%. 

The company’s continued accumulation comes as Ethereum outperforms Bitcoin, a metric many traders use to gauge risk appetite across the crypto market. 

The ETH/BTC ratio has continued to rise despite falling expectations that the Clarity Act will pass in 2026. The ratio has climbed to a three-month high of 0.0300, which could point to further Ethereum outperformance. 

Ethereum is one of the strongest-performing major cryptocurrencies this month, trading higher for a fifth consecutive week and taking July gains to more than 22%. 

Ethereum technical analysis 

ETH/USD has recovered from the 2026 low at 1,510, breaking above the falling trendline and reclaiming the 50 EMA. However, it continues to face resistance below the July high at 1,975, suggesting that while near-term momentum has improved, the broader outlook remains bearish. 

Buyers will need to break above 1,975 and then the psychological 2,000 level to expose the 200 EMA around 2,170. A move above the 200 EMA would significantly strengthen the longer-term outlook. 

Initial support is seen at 1,835, where the 50 EMA converges with horizontal support. A break below this level would expose the 2026 low at 1,510. A move beneath 1,510 would create a lower low, opening the door to 1,360, the 2024 low. 

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