Ethereum tests key support after Fed leaves rates unchanged despite rising inflation 

Ethereum, Bitcoin and the wider cryptocurrency market traded under pressure on Thursday as investors digested the latest Federal Reserve interest rate decision, disappointing tech earnings, rising inflation and stronger-than-forecast growth. 

Ethereum trades 1.5% lower at $2,370 and is on track for losses of 13%, its worst October since 2018 amid a challenging backdrop and as institutional outflows from ETH ramp up. 

Fed leaves rates unchanged as inflation rises 

The Federal Reserve, as expected, left interest rates unchanged just ahead of the midterm elections, keeping rates at 3.75%–4% in a slightly more hawkish 10–2 vote. 

However, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s comments slightly muddied the outlook for rates into next year. The Fed highlighted strong economic growth and a resilient labour market, while inflation remained the focus of the meeting. However, Warsh said the Fed could bring inflation back to 2% without slowing growth or hurting the labour market, dampening expectations of aggressive rate hikes. 

As a result, the U.S. 2-year Treasury yield, which is closely tied to the Fed’s rate outlook, fell, bringing the U.S. dollar lower and lifting BTC. 

However, those gains were short-lived as Thursday’s data showed rising inflation, with core PCE, the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, rising 0.3% month on month and 3.1% annually, up from 3% in August. Rising inflation, combined with stronger Q3 GDP growth of 3.4% annualised, supports the view that the Fed could hike again in December, partly countering the uncertainty following the Fed meeting. 

Alphabet earnings hit sentiment 

Risk sentiment has also taken a hit following Alphabet’s earnings, which are pulling the stock 10% lower pre-market and dragging Nasdaq futures 1% lower. 

Google’s parent company, Alphabet, is falling after lifting its AI spending to $50 billion in the third quarter, leading to record cash burn that has spooked the market, alongside weakness in its core search advertising business. 

These figures matter for crypto because of the positive correlation between tech stocks and cryptocurrencies, as well as the broader impact on risk sentiment. 

ETH is losing new and old money 

ETH ETFs have seen $1.35 billion in net outflows this month, the second-largest monthly outflow on record, behind only the $1.42 billion in net outflows recorded in November 2025. 

These outflows have coincided with wallets that had been dormant for years moving $140 million in ETH, raising concerns over potential selling. 

Ethereum – technical analysis 

Ethereum has reversed lower after reaching an eight-month high of $2,800, falling below its 50 EMA before finding support at the 200 EMA and the rising trendline around $2,320. While the price holds above this level, the longer-term outlook remains constructive. However, Ethereum, Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market remain under pressure. The RSI is below 50, signalling weakening momentum as the price tests this key level. 

A break below here could see sellers gain traction towards $2,170, the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the move from the $1,560 swing low to the $2,800 high. From here, attention will turn to $2,000, the psychological level, and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. 

Should this key support hold, buyers will look towards $2,500, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, before attention turns to $2,800. A rise above here would create a higher high, changing the structure of the chart. 

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