Fed speakers line up after CPI: what Hammack and Williams could signal for December

Six Federal Reserve (Fed) officials are speaking today, Thursday, 12 November 2026. That comes two days after a US inflation report that came in hotter than forecast. Markets already see a December rate hike as close to certain, so the bigger question now is how big that hike could be. Fed Governor Christopher Waller started that debate on Tuesday. Today, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid all added to it. New York Fed President John Williams is the last to speak, late tonight.

Why these speeches matter more than usual

• Inflation ran hot again. The October Consumer Price Index (CPI), which tracks the prices people pay for everyday goods and services, rose 0.4% in the month. The forecast was 0.3%. Core CPI, which leaves out food and energy, rose 0.3% against a 0.2% forecast.
• The Fed is already raising rates. It lifted its rate range to 3.75% to 4.00% in September. In October it kept rates unchanged, but two officials, Hammack and Governor Lisa Cook, voted for a hike instead.
• The next decision is close. The Fed meets on 8 and 9 December. The next CPI report comes out the day after that meeting.
• Borrowing costs are high. The yield on the US 10 year government bond, a key measure of long term borrowing costs, is back above 5%.

Markets now see a December hike as a done deal. CME FedWatch, which turns interest rate futures prices into odds for each Fed meeting, shows an 87.4% chance of a 25 basis point hike on 9 December and a 12.6% chance of a bigger 50 basis point hike. It puts the chance of no change at zero.

The Fed cut rates three times in late 2025, then raised them again in September 2026. Markets now expect another hike at the 9 December meeting, which would lift the range to 4.00% to 4.25%.

What Waller said on Tuesday

Waller sits on the Fed’s Board of Governors in Washington. He spoke in London a few hours before the CPI report came out. He said he was leaning towards a hike of 25 basis points in December, even if October inflation improved. A basis point is one hundredth of a percentage point, so 25 basis points means 0.25%.

He also set a clear test. If core CPI came in at around 0.3% or higher, he said the Fed should consider a bigger hike of 50 basis points. In his view, a smaller hike in that case could hurt the Fed’s credibility. Core CPI then came in at exactly 0.3%.

What Hammack said this morning

Hammack is one of the Fed’s strongest inflation hawks, meaning she tends to favour higher rates to bring inflation down. She also has a vote this year. At both the July and October meetings, she voted against the decision because she wanted a hike.

At an event with Ohio State University students earlier today, she said:

• the Fed has been missing its inflation goal for years, and the latest data shows inflation heading in the wrong direction
• she’s worried people could start to expect high inflation to last, which can make it harder to bring down
• rates need to rise high enough to actively slow the economy and cool prices
• the Fed is doing very well on jobs, the other half of its two goals

She also said she prefers smaller, steadier rate moves. That matters. Even one of the Fed’s firmest hawks appears to favour a series of regular hikes over one big move, which could limit bets on a 50 basis point hike.

What Goolsbee said this afternoon

Goolsbee, who gets a vote next year, spoke at a Yahoo Finance event this afternoon. He said inflation has been well above target, that Tuesday’s hot CPI report wasn’t a one off, and that the Fed is failing on the inflation side of its goals. He also described AI investment as a form of stimulus, meaning extra spending that heats up the economy.

Still, he said he doesn’t want to prejudge the Fed’s next move, so he stopped short of backing a December hike or a bigger one.

What Daly and Schmid said this evening

Daly, who also votes next year, gave a speech at Stanford University on what AI means for the economy. She said:

• her bias is that further tightening will be needed, meaning more rate hikes
• inflation is spreading into services, such as rents and healthcare, where it tends to be harder to bring down
• the Fed has an inflation problem, but AI is not doing most of the driving
• higher bond yields are already doing some of the Fed’s work, which gives it more time, and the exact timing and size of future hikes don’t need to be decided right away

Schmid, who votes in 2028, didn’t talk about rates in his prepared speech. Afterwards, though, he said the Fed still hasn’t beaten inflation. He made a similar point earlier this week, when he said interest rates still aren’t high enough to hold the economy back.

The message across the day is consistent. Every official who spoke wants inflation brought down, and none of them argued against more hikes. But Hammack’s preference for steady moves and Daly’s comment that the Fed has time both point towards a series of smaller hikes rather than one big jump.

Williams tonight

John Williams, head of the New York Fed, takes part in a panel discussion at 23:30 UTC. He’s the one to watch. The head of the New York Fed votes at every meeting and is vice chair of the committee that sets rates, so his views usually carry extra weight. If he hints at 25 or 50 basis points, markets could react during Asian trading hours, after US markets have closed.

Nasdaq 100 technical picture

The Nasdaq 100, which tracks 100 of the biggest companies on the Nasdaq exchange, many of them tech names, has had a rough few weeks. It closed at a record 31,224 on 6 October. It then fell more than 10% from that high, which traders call a correction. Its lowest close came on 5 November at 26,630, on its worst day since 2020.

Since then it has bounced. It jumped 2.3% on Wednesday after strong results from AI cloud company CoreWeave. Today has been choppier. Nvidia said its Chief Executive Officer, Jensen Huang, has resigned, and the index swung between losses and gains before slipping back to around 28,300 at the time of writing.

The Nasdaq 100 is back at the area where it broke down in late October and early November. The 50 day moving average, the average closing price over the last 50 trading days, is still pointing lower and sits above the current price.

The index is now testing an important area, around 28,400 to 28,600. It closed near there on 30 October and 4 November before the big drop. Wednesday’s high stopped just below 28,600, and today the index has dipped back under 28,400. A level that used to act as a floor often acts as a ceiling once price breaks below it, so so far this area appears to be holding the bounce back.

• If the index can close above 28,600, the bounce could stretch towards the 50 day moving average near 29,500, close to where it traded in late October.
• If it’s pushed back from here, the move since 5 November may turn out to be a short bounce in a wider downtrend, and the 26,600 to 27,000 area, where the index found its low, could come back into focus.

Higher interest rates tend to weigh on tech stocks, because they make future profits worth less today. That links this chart to the Fed. A hint of a 50 basis point hike from Williams tonight could make it harder for the index to break higher, while a steadier message could help. After that, the next tests are Friday’s Producer Price Index (PPI), which tracks the prices businesses charge, at 13:30 UTC, and Nvidia’s results on 17 November.

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