US CPI preview: prices jumped 0.6% in September. Will October cool down?

The US consumer price index (CPI) for October comes out today, Tuesday, 10 November 2026 at 1:30 pm (UTC). It’s the last inflation report before the Federal Reserve (Fed) meets on 8 and 9 December, so it could carry a lot of weight for markets.

This release also comes with a twist. There won’t be an official annual inflation rate for October.

What CPI measures

CPI tracks how the prices of everyday things change, from food and rent to petrol and flights. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) publishes it every month.

There are two numbers to watch:

• Headline CPI covers everything in the basket.
• Core CPI leaves out food and energy, which can jump around a lot. Many traders see core as the better guide to where inflation is heading.

Why there’s no annual number this time

Last year’s US government shutdown lasted 43 days, from 1 October to 12 November 2025. BLS staff couldn’t collect prices during that time, so there’s no October 2025 figure to compare with.

Without it, the BLS can’t work out how much prices have risen over the past 12 months. So it won’t publish an annual change for October where last year’s data is missing, and that includes headline and core CPI.

That puts the spotlight on the monthly change instead.

A hot September

September was a strong month for prices. CPI rose 0.6% in a single month, driven mainly by petrol. Annual inflation climbed to 3.7%, up from 3.4% in August and above the 3.6% forecast. Core CPI rose 0.3% in the month and 2.6% over the year.

Monthly CPI changes have swung widely this year as energy prices moved. September’s 0.6% jump matched April as the second largest rise of 2026, behind March. Forecasts for October point to a smaller rise.

What’s expected for October

Economists expect a calmer month:

• Headline CPI: around 0.2% to 0.3% month on month, down from 0.6%
• Core CPI: around 0.2%, down from 0.3%

The main reason is fuel. Regular petrol averaged $4.31 a gallon in October, according to the US Bureau of Transportation Statistics. That’s 1.0% lower than September, but still about 41% higher than a year ago.

Core prices could still surprise. Some economists see upside risk from airfares, hotels and higher shipping costs.

Some banks have also worked out their own annual estimates, near 4.0% for headline and 2.8% for core. These are private calculations, not official data, so different sources may show different annual numbers today.

Annual inflation peaked above 4% in May and was back at 3.7% in September, still well above the Fed’s 2% target. The grey bands show the two months with no official annual figure, both caused by the missing October 2025 data.

Why the Fed is watching

The Fed raised interest rates by 0.25% in September, to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%. On 28 October it held them there in a 10 to 2 vote, with two officials preferring another hike.

After that meeting, markets priced a high chance of a further hike in December. Today’s report could strengthen or weaken that view.

Keep in mind that even a 0.2% monthly core reading is still faster than the Fed would like. To hit 2% a year, prices would need to rise by only about 0.17% a month.

How markets could react

Hotter than expected (core 0.3% or higher)

• Could strengthen the case for a December hike
• The US dollar may firm, while gold and Bitcoin (BTC) could come under pressure
• Stocks may struggle as rate expectations rise

In line (core around 0.2%)

• May leave December expectations roughly where they are
• Any move could fade quickly, with attention turning to US producer prices on Friday, 13 November

Cooler than expected (core 0.1% or lower)

• Could ease pressure on the Fed to hike again
• The dollar may soften, which could support gold, Bitcoin and stocks

Prices can move sharply in the first minutes after 1:30 pm (UTC), and that first move doesn’t always last. Spreads can also widen around big releases like this one.

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