4 min read Gold dropped almost 3% on Thursday and slipped below $4,000 early on Friday, its lowest level since late July. Rising oil prices are adding to inflation fears, making another Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike more likely, and higher rates tend to weigh on gold. The Fed’s next decision comes on 28 October.
Weekly chart: the uptrend is losing steam
Gold climbed in a clear pattern of higher highs and higher lows from early 2024 all the way to its record in January. That pattern has now changed.
- Lower highs: every rally since January has stopped below the one before, a sign the trend is getting weaker.
- Below the EMAs: price is trading under the weekly 20 EMA (around 4,283) and 50 EMA (around 4,243).
- Key support zone: gold is back inside the 3,920 to 4,180 area that has held since late 2025. If this zone breaks, a deeper correction could follow.
Gold has made lower highs since its January record and is now testing the support zone that has held since late 2025.
Daily chart: back at the summer lows
On the daily chart, gold broke below 4,106, the level that marked last week’s lows. It’s now trading near 4,020, close to the bottom of the range it traded in during June and July.
- Possible support: buyers stepped in around this area several times over the summer, so they could show up again.
- First resistance: a bounce could run into 4,106, the old support that may now act as resistance.
- Next level up: above that, 4,300 is the next major level.
The break below 4,106 sent gold back to the area where buyers defended price during the summer.
1 hour chart: a bounce in the making?
On the 1 hour chart, the sell off paused after a dip to about 3,987 during the Asian session. Since then, gold has moved sideways in a tight range between 4,000 and 4,030.
- Bullish scenario: a break above 4,030, followed by a successful retest, could open the way toward the 4,082 to 4,106 area.
- Why that area matters: it lines up with the 0.618 to 0.786 Fibonacci retracement of the latest drop and with the broken 4,106 support, so it could act as strong resistance.
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