Nasdaq heads into SpaceX IPO, the first big test of the AI boom

The Nasdaq enters June at record highs, but the next move could hinge on an event off the chart: the SpaceX listing, the first in a wave of giant AI-linked IPOs that markets are treating as a test of how much appetite is left for trillion-dollar growth stories.

• The Nasdaq rose around 8% in May, ending the month at all-time highs as Iran de-escalation hopes pulled oil and yields lower.
• SpaceX is set to list on the Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX, with a debut expected around 12 June at a valuation near $1.75 trillion, potentially the largest IPO ever.
• It is the first of a possible $3 trillion wave of AI-linked listings, with OpenAI and Anthropic reportedly lining up behind it.
• A recent rule change means the index could absorb SpaceX within weeks, tying the Nasdaq’s near-term path to how the listing is received.

Why the SpaceX listing matters for the Nasdaq

SpaceX filed its prospectus on 20 May and is targeting a Nasdaq debut around 12 June. Reported valuations sit near $1.75 trillion, with some estimates closer to $2 trillion, which could make it the largest IPO on record. After merging with xAI, it is now part space company, part AI play, and it is coming to market while still lossmaking. That combination is exactly why investors are watching it so closely.

The reason it could move the index directly is a recent rule change. Companies can now join the Nasdaq 100 just 15 trading days after listing, down from the previous seasoning period of three to twelve months. With roughly $527 billion tracked across the funds that follow the index, early inclusion could force significant passive buying of SpaceX shares soon after it starts trading. In other words, the Nasdaq 100 is set to take on a near-$2 trillion constituent on an accelerated timetable.

The first test of the AI boom

The bigger picture is that SpaceX is the opening act. OpenAI is reported to be preparing a listing around September, and Anthropic could follow as soon as October. Together, the three could bring close to $3 trillion of new market value to public investors in a matter of months.

That makes the SpaceX debut a yardstick. It is widely framed as a test of whether public markets have the appetite to absorb AI-linked equity at trillion-dollar valuations, on businesses built on losses today and a bet on transformation tomorrow. The views are split: some prominent investors have likened the hype to the dot-com era, while the bull case is simpler, that if these listings price richly and hold up, they could extend the boom rather than end it. A weak debut could instead force a repricing conversation across AI-linked names.

The macro backdrop

The rally into June has a clear driver. Markets are betting on a resolution to the Iran conflict, and the past week showed what that looks like: oil retreated, Treasury yields eased, and the major averages pushed to records on hopes the Strait of Hormuz reopens soon.

The risks under the surface are worth keeping in mind:

• The deal still hinges on the nuclear sticking point, so headlines could swing sentiment quickly.
• Even with oil lower, traders still expect at least one quarter-point rate increase later in 2026 under new Fed chair Kevin Warsh.
• June is seasonally the weakest month for stocks in a midterm election year, and some expect a period of short-term consolidation.
• Friday’s US jobs report is the next major macro print.

The daily chart

The Nasdaq is trending higher on the daily timeframe with RSI at a rarely seen overbought reading, while the 29,500 area sits below as potential support.

On the daily timeframe, the Nasdaq remains in one of its strongest uptrends in some time, with price extending to fresh highs around 30,400.

• The daily RSI pushed to a reading in early May that has rarely appeared in recent years, with the last comparable instance around 2018. That period is a useful reminder that a market can stay overbought for an extended stretch rather than turning lower straight away.
• There is a potential bearish divergence developing, with RSI tracing lower highs while price has continued higher. For now it is unconfirmed, as a divergence typically needs a corresponding break in price to follow through, and the current price action has stayed firmly bullish.
• If a pullback does materialise, the 29,500 area is one potential support zone to watch.

The 4-hour chart

Zooming in, the shorter-term trend is also clearly constructive.

• Price is holding above both the 20 and 50 EMA on the 4-hour, and has been bouncing cleanly off the 20 EMA.
• The first level below is around 30,150, where the 4-hour 20 EMA could add confluence as potential support on a minor pullback.
• Below that, the 29,500 area from the daily chart remains the deeper support zone, reinforced by the rising 4-hour 50 EMA.

Key levels to watch

Support:

• 30,150, the first level below, with potential 4-hour 20 EMA confluence
• 29,500, the daily support area, reinforced by the rising 4-hour 50 EMA

Upside:

• Price is trading at fresh highs around 30,400, leaving little overhead resistance, with the index in price discovery

What to watch

• The SpaceX pricing on or around 11 June and its first day of trading, as an early read on demand.
• Any progress or breakdown in the Iran talks, and the knock-on effect on oil and yields.
• Friday’s US jobs report and any shift in the rate path under Warsh.
• Headlines on the OpenAI and Anthropic listings as the wider IPO wave develops.

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