Tech companies are on pace to spend $800 billion on AI infrastructure in 2026, and Goldman Sachs says the real total could top $1 trillion once global and private spending are counted. Nvidia and Qualcomm stand out as the stocks best positioned to capture that spending.
Goldman Sachs sees a bigger number
Analysts expect tech companies to deploy $800 billion in capital this year to scale AI infrastructure. Goldman Sachs, however, thinks the true figure is closer to $1 trillion. The bank's analysts say most market estimates leave out AI investment by private companies and firms outside the U.S., which could push global and private spending more than $200 billion over expectations.
A buildout years in the making
McKinsey & Co. projects AI capex will reach $7 trillion globally by 2030. According to McKinsey, it is "one of the largest infrastructure build-outs in modern history." Research from AllianceBernstein urges caution, pointing to echoes of the dot-com bubble and the 19th-century railway-building boom, where adoption ultimately took longer than investors expected and the eventual winners were unclear.
Nvidia leans on its global reach
Nvidia remains a direct way to bet on that spending. Its GPUs are widely regarded as the best on the market, and its CUDA software platform makes its products stickier than most traditional hardware businesses. Roughly 10% of Nvidia's revenue comes from Taiwan, while its Chinese business has all but vanished, leaving the company largely U.S.-centric. Nvidia announced more than 40 international partnerships last year, up from 15 the year before, and is on pace to exceed that count in 2026.
Qualcomm offers a cheaper entry
Qualcomm is already exposed to Asia, with nearly half of its 2025 revenue coming from China. More than one-quarter of its sales came from South Korea and other foreign countries. The chipmaker expects at least $15 billion in data-center revenue by 2029 as AI adoption moves toward edge devices. Qualcomm trades at just 19 times earnings, though geopolitical risk and a stagnating core smartphone business complicate the case.
The capex boom feeds bigger valuation bets
The spending surge is also feeding expectations for AI company valuations. According to Crypto Briefing, the odds of Anthropic reaching a $2.0 trillion valuation by December 31 rose from 67% to 77.5% over the past week on prediction-market data.
Sources: The Motley Fool, Crypto Briefing
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