AUD/USD dropped 1.02% against the dollar, breaking below its 100-day moving average and sliding into a swing support zone near its rising 200-day average. The pair now trades close to 0.70395, with buyers needing to reclaim 0.70422 for a step toward recovery.
AUD/USD fell 1.02% against the US dollar, making it the day's biggest mover versus the greenback. The pair spent most of yesterday's session below its 100-hour moving average, and that average came back into play near 0.7116 at the start of today's Asia-Pacific session.
Buyers tested that level but could not push through. Once price turned lower and moved away from the average, sellers gained momentum. The pair then hit the 50% retracement at 0.70795 of the move higher from the July 29 low, bounced briefly toward yesterday's low near 0.70908, then stalled.
Sellers push below key averages
Sellers then drove the pair below both the midpoint and the 100-day moving average at 0.70737. Those breaks matter because the midpoint and the 100-day average had given buyers two chances to hold support — and when neither level held, the selling intensified.
The decline continued into a swing area between 0.7020 and 0.7027, defined by highs going back to mid-June. Today's low of 0.7026 reached that area, coming within about 8 pips of the rising 200-day moving average at 0.70177. The pair is currently trading near 0.70395.
What would give buyers relief
The swing area and the 200-day moving average make 0.7018–0.7027 the key support zone. A sustained break below the 200-day average would signal that the support trade is no longer working.
The first step toward a recovery would be a move back above the broken 61.8% retracement at 0.70422. Getting above that level would give buyers a small victory, but the more meaningful test would come at the broken 100-day moving average near 0.70737. A bounce into that average that stalls would leave sellers in control.
The downside risk
A sustained move below the 200-day moving average at 0.70177 would mark the first break below that average since November 2025, a meaningful change in the longer-term technical picture. For now, the question is whether buyers can defend 0.7018–0.7027 and reclaim 0.70422. If they cannot, sellers remain in control.
Source: Investinglive
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