AUD/USD has dropped through a series of swing areas this week, hitting its lowest level since early July. Sellers remain in control below the falling 100-hour moving average, with the end-of-June low at 0.68655 now the next downside target.
Sellers push through successive swing areas
The pair has continued its trend move lower this week, with sellers taking the price from one swing area to the next. The move started Monday and Tuesday, when the 100-hour moving average was tested near the 200-day moving average and the high of a swing area between 0.70203 and 0.70269, but sellers pushed lower from there.
Yesterday, sellers extended below the next area between 0.69619 and 0.69778, opening the door for another push lower. That push carried the pair today into an even lower swing area at 0.69056–0.69205, where buyers found support and the price bounced toward 0.6931.
What buyers need to reclaim control
AUD/USD has remained below its falling 100-hour moving average since September 23, which has reinforced the bearish bias. Holding the 0.69056–0.69205 zone is only a start for buyers. The first meaningful hurdle would be a move back above 0.69619–0.69778, a level that was previously support and now stands as resistance where sellers can lean and define risk.
Clearing that zone would give buyers breathing room, but the falling 100-hour moving average still remains a key barometer. Buyers would need to get, and stay, above that average to show they can interrupt the downtrend. A bounce from support does not by itself change the broader trend — it only shows buyers responded where expected.
Downside path stays open
A move back below 0.69205 would put the price back inside the lower swing area. From there, a subsequent break below 0.69056 would open the door toward the chart's low at 0.68655.
A bounce from a downside target does not, by itself, change the trend lower.
Source: Investinglive
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