AUD/USD eased on Monday after an eight-week rally and Friday's 0.8% gain pushed the pair to a fresh two-and-a-half-month high. The pullback has stayed shallow, and the rising 100-hour moving average is keeping the broader uptrend intact ahead of this week's Australian and US data.
AUD/USD slipped to a low of 0.7154 on Monday, correcting from levels just under the new two-and-a-half-month high it reached last week. Friday's 0.8% gain completed an eight-week rally. The pullback has stayed shallow so far, with today's trading range spanning only around 23 pips — a sign sellers have yet to take meaningful control.
What stands out is that AUD/USD is falling even as gold keeps building on last week's gains. Gold rose another $70, or 1.51%, to $4,672, after touching a high of $4,680.92. That marks its strongest level since mid-May.
Support near the 100-hour average defines the bias
Key support sits at the August 17 high near 0.7129 and the rising 100-hour moving average at 0.71262. A break below that area would give sellers some hope, and the next downside target would then be the 200-hour moving average near 0.7103. ActionForex similarly places support at 0.7156, 0.7120, 0.7100 and 0.7071. A rising 10-day moving average and the broken Fibonacci 61.8% retracement between 0.7100 and 0.7120 are expected to contain dips, ActionForex notes.
Resistance builds toward a four-year high
Last week bulls cracked a double Fibonacci barrier at 0.7180 — the 76.4% retracement of the 0.7277/0.6865 range and the 161.8% expansion of the third wave of a five-wave cycle from the June 30 low. Daily studies are now overbought. A firm break of the 0.7180/0.7200 zone would signal bullish continuation and expose the next barrier at 0.7277, the May 6 peak and the pair's highest level in four years. Traders are now watching Tuesday's RBA minutes and Wednesday's Australian July CPI and US July PCE releases for the next signal.
The buyers still hold the stronger technical hand as long as price stays above the 100-hour moving average.
Sources: InvestingLive, ActionForex
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