USD/CAD stalled at 1.4293 on October 5, rejecting a key resistance zone after a rally that began near 1.3750 in early September. Sellers defended the level, but they still need to break several support floors below for this to become more than a correction within the broader uptrend.
USD/CAD stretched to 1.4293 on October 5 and found willing sellers, stalling the pair's advance right at a resistance zone built from two separate technical measures. The pair has been climbing since bottoming near 1.3750 in early September, with buyers in firm control throughout the move.
Two levels converge to cap the rally
The pair hit 1.42928, the 61.8% retracement of the decline from the late-January 2025 high to the late-January 2026 low, almost exactly matching the April 7, 2025 swing high at 1.4295. That convergence, separated by just over two pips, gave sellers a defined area to lean against, with a move above 1.4300 offering a logical risk reference. The price reached 1.4293, stalled, and rotated lower.
The pullback has run into support so far
The rotation lower has pushed the pair back into a swing area between 1.4234 and 1.4247, and today's low has so far stalled at 1.4239. Just below that area sits a rising 100-hour moving average, which has repeatedly served as support during the rally. That average now sits at 1.42275, and a sustained break beneath it would show the pullback is doing more damage than last week's brief breaks. Buyers have used that moving average as a floor throughout the rally, with only two hourly bars closing below it during the entire advance, after a slightly weaker PCE report on Wednesday and a weaker-than-expected jobs report on Friday — both breaks quickly rejected.
Next levels on each side
A further break lower would bring the 200-hour moving average at 1.41845 into focus, followed by the next lower swing area between 1.41297 and 1.41488. On the upside, the 1.42928–1.4295 zone remains the level to beat; a push through it and above 1.4300 would put buyers back on the offensive. For now, the rejection at resistance marks a correction within the broader uptrend, not confirmation that the trend has reversed.
Source: investinglive.com
Trading involves risk.
Risk Disclaimer
