Bank of America analyst Wamsi Mohan reiterated his Buy rating on Apple and kept his $380 price target unchanged after reviewing App Store data through the first 35 days of fiscal fourth quarter 2026. Downloads fell for the first time since April 2024, while average revenue per download rose and ChatGPT and Claude posted rising App Store revenue.
Bank of America analyst Wamsi Mohan reiterated his Buy rating on Apple and kept his $380 price target unchanged after the company's latest earnings. Apple closed at $309.38 on Aug. 5, making that target roughly 23% above the current price.
The $380 target's valuation rests on 37 times Mohan's calendar 2027 EPS estimate of $10.32, according to Investing.com.
App Store revenue grows even as downloads fall
Mohan's analysis, based on Sensor Tower data, puts Apple App Store revenue at approximately $3.40 billion for the first 35 days of fiscal fourth quarter 2026, a 0.6% year-over-year increase from $3.38 billion in the same period a year earlier. Global App Store downloads, however, fell 4.0% year over year to roughly 3.34 billion — the first negative download growth since April 2024. Average revenue per download still rose 4.7% year over year to $1.02, so existing users are spending more even as fewer new ones join. In China, downloads fell 6.8% year over year, but App Store revenue there rose 8.7%, the fifth straight month of revenue growth in that market.
ChatGPT revenue on Apple's platform surges
ChatGPT generated more than $275 million in monthly App Store revenue in July 2026, up from roughly $10 million in January 2024. Claude produced approximately $65 million in July, with its monthly revenue growing every month since March 2026. Google's standalone Search app held 88% of daily active user share among tracked apps in January 2025; by July 31, 2026, that figure had dropped to 73% as AI-powered alternatives took the rest. Every subscription dollar spent on these apps still flows a commission to Apple.
Why Bank of America sees Services growing
The note cites Apple's Siri AI architecture, Apple Silicon, and the Upgrade Program as additional Services growth drivers alongside App Store commissions, and Mohan models Services revenue growth of approximately 10% year over year for the fiscal fourth quarter. According to CNBC, Mohan argued in May that Apple's agentic AI position gives it control over "user intent, personal context, app access, permissions, identity, authentication, payments, and trust."
Gaming loses share as other categories grow
Gaming remains Apple's largest App Store category, but its share dropped to 42% of total App Store revenue from 46% a year earlier, as gaming revenue fell 9% year over year. Productivity revenue rose 42% year over year, while music grew 20% and business 15%. Mohan does not view Apple's unresolved Epic Games lawsuit as a significant threat to his investment thesis.
Source: TheStreet
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