The Senate rejected a procedural vote on the Clarity Act 49 to 50 on Tuesday, killing the crypto market-structure bill's chances for this Congress. Bernstein analysts now expect the SEC and CFTC to respond with fast rulemaking of their own, while the bill's failure leaves the current stablecoin rewards framework in place.
The Senate's failure to advance the Clarity Act shifts the next stretch of U.S. crypto rulemaking to the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, according to analysts at Bernstein. The chamber rejected cloture on the bill 49 to 50, 11 votes short of the 60 needed to open debate.
Bitcoin fell to $75,960 in the aftermath, down 4% and its lowest level since Aug. 21.
Bernstein expects fast agency rulemaking
Analysts led by Gautam Chhugani said the SEC and CFTC are likely to pursue rulemaking that is aggressive and swift, making up for time spent negotiating the bill, covering the classification of native crypto tokens and protections for decentralized-finance and self-custody infrastructure. They also expect faster approvals for real-world-asset perpetual futures and coordination between the agencies on single-stock perpetuals, plus new rules reclassifying federal sports event contracts as swaps.
The agencies have already signaled intent to move alone. On Aug. 19, the SEC proposed rules letting crypto firms raise up to $5 million in tokens over four years and up to $75 million over 12 months, alongside a safe harbor exempting crypto assets from being treated as investment contracts. SEC Chair Paul Atkins had said in July that the agency was ready to issue its own rules if the Senate failed to pass the bill.
Stablecoin rewards continue unchanged
With the compromise text dead, platforms such as Coinbase can keep paying rewards on idle stablecoin balances, since the failed bill would have tied such rewards to customer activity instead. According to The Block: "Stablecoins should be just fine since they are governed by GENIUS."
The rewards question still hinges on how the GENIUS Act treats stablecoin issuers. The OCC and FDIC have proposed rules that could treat an issuer as violating GENIUS's yield ban if it pays an affiliate that then rewards holders, and the dispute could land in court once the law takes effect in January 2027, StoneX said.
Odds fade for a 2026 deal
StoneX Financial analysts led by Mark Palmer said the bill is dead for this Congress, citing only 14 working days left in the Senate before campaign season. They noted Polymarket odds of the bill becoming law in 2026 had fallen from 82% in February to 16% before the vote. Decrypt reported those odds fell further, to 5% after the vote.
Sources: The Block, Cointelegraph.com News, Decrypt
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