Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says a 30- to 60-day ceasefire with Iran could be finalized within a day, days after his August 4 forecast of a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz sent US oil prices down nearly 6%. Prediction markets tracking an accord by August 15 have moved the other way, with confidence slipping to 39.5%. A prior ceasefire attempt already collapsed once, in July.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said a 30- to 60-day ceasefire agreement with Iran might be finalized shortly, potentially within the next day, during an interview with 12News. The remark follows Bessent's earlier statement that the United States and Iran could reach a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping — an announcement that sent US crude oil prices tumbling nearly 6%, to below $76 per barrel on August 4.
Hormuz carries a fifth of the world's oil
The strait, the narrow passage between Iran and Oman connecting the Persian Gulf to the open ocean, typically carries roughly a fifth of the world's daily oil consumption. Hundreds of commercial vessels have been stalled waiting to transit the waterway since the US and Israel launched strikes against Iran on February 28. Oil markets have been operating with a substantial risk premium baked in since those strikes, and elevated energy costs have been feeding into inflation figures throughout 2026.
A ceasefire attempt already failed once
This is not the first try at reopening the strait. A memorandum of understanding signed on June 17 was meant to reopen it for 60 days. But it collapsed in July over disagreements about shipping routes.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio has pointed to ongoing talks mediated by Oman, and Bessent indicated potential outcomes could materialize by August 5 or 6. President Trump has suggested talks are progressing, but Iranian officials have dismissed the idea that direct negotiations are even taking place. According to Crypto Briefing, Bessent has described a deal that would restore "freedom of movement" through the strait without tolls.
Markets show fading confidence
Prediction markets tracking an agreement by August 15 have moved toward a NO outcome, with pricing on the deadline sliding to 39.5% YES over the past 24 hours. Involvement from President Trump and Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi will be crucial to the negotiations' trajectory.
Sources: Crypto Briefing, Crypto Briefing
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