BIT Research says Bitcoin's bear market has ended, with one upside scenario for this cycle running from $185,000 to $215,000. The firm points to holders and spot ETF buyers returning to profit and a technical bottom set in late July, while flagging a stronger dollar as the main risk to the rally.
BIT Research says Bitcoin's bear market is over. The firm's report, published Wednesday, argues one upside scenario for this cycle runs from $185,000 to $215,000. The primary cryptocurrency trades above $83,000 and looks set to finish its third straight month in the green, pushing quarterly gains to 42%.
Cycle Low Confirmed in July
The firm says it called the cycle low in late July, after Bitcoin hit a downside target from Elliott Wave analysis and held above $62,900. Weekly RSI, a gauge of how hard prices are falling, stopped dropping in June and July even as price made new lows — a split the report compares to the 2022 bottom.
Bitcoin then crossed its 21-week moving average at $69,272 and reclaimed $70,000. It now trades around $83,000, above its March 2024 high of $73,084.
Holders Return to Profit
The report leans on cost basis: the True Market Mean, the estimated average price holders paid, sits at $76,897, putting the typical holder and the average spot ETF buyer back in profit. BIT Research says this removes a source of selling pressure.
Federal Debt Could Favor Bitcoin Over Gold
US federal debt has passed $40 trillion, and rising Treasury yields tied to worries over government finances can send money toward gold and Bitcoin, the report says. BIT's debt model gives a reference valuation near $105,000.
The main headwind is a stronger dollar, with traders pricing in more Fed rate hikes and the Strait of Hormuz still closed. Still, the firm does not expect this to derail the rally, since past dollar strength has hurt gold more than Bitcoin.
Source: CryptoPotato
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