A Bitcoin-based valuation model built by analyst filbfilb finds that Zcash already trades above what its current network activity supports. The framework compares ZEC's transaction count and transferred value against Bitcoin's history, and it also models what ZEC could be worth if the network kept converging with Bitcoin's.
Zcash's rally toward $1,300 has revived comparisons to Bitcoin, since both networks share a 21 million coin maximum supply. But analyst filbfilb argues that matching supply alone says little about valuation, so he built a model that compares transaction activity, transferred value, and circulating supply between the two networks.
Bitcoin's Own History Sets the Baseline
Zcash currently has slightly less than 17 million coins in circulation, which approximately matches an earlier stage in Bitcoin's issuance history. Instead of applying Bitcoin's valuation from that stage directly, filbfilb adjusted it for relative network usage. At that equivalent stage, Zcash's transaction activity comes to roughly 3.71% of Bitcoin's. Applied to Bitcoin's historical market cap, that implies a ZEC price of approximately $254. A second model compares both networks today: Zcash processes roughly 1.01% of Bitcoin's transaction count. Applied to Bitcoin's current market cap, that implies a value near $944 per ZEC. Both figures sit below ZEC's recent high.
Shielded Transfers Complicate the Math
The transaction-count model treats a $10 transfer the same as a $10 million one, a weakness filbfilb acknowledges. The model therefore also weighs dollar value transferred, though Zcash's shielded transactions hide those amounts. He assumes 58% of transactions are shielded and that the average shielded transaction carries the same value as an observable one. Under that assumption, Zcash reaches approximately 12.34% of Bitcoin's equivalent-stage transfer value, well above the 3.71% transaction-count figure. Blending the two measurements equally puts Zcash's estimated network progress at about 8.03%.
Convergence Scenarios Push the Numbers Higher
Treating Bitcoin's current network valuation as a potential long-term destination changes the picture. The transaction-only model implies a price of roughly $3,457 per ZEC under a hypothetical 100% Bitcoin value-capture scenario. The blended transaction-and-privacy model reaches roughly $7,480. Under 25% and 50% capture assumptions, that figure falls to $1,870 and $3,740, respectively. filbfilb frames these as scenarios rather than price targets or probabilities, and flags limitations including architectural differences between the two networks and the inability to measure shielded transfer values directly.
At current levels, ZEC already looks expensive against what its network has achieved so far. Whether that gap closes depends on whether Zcash keeps converging toward Bitcoin.
Source: CryptoPotato
Trading involves risk.
Risk Disclaimer
