Bitcoin has broken above its 50-week moving average, a level that has historically marked turning points at the end of past bear markets. A chart analyst lays out three scenarios for where the price goes next, with immediate support and resistance levels to watch this week.
Bitcoin is trading at $80,441.66, up 1.2% today. It has also gained 4.6% over the past week, after breaking above its 50-week moving average. The level has historically marked turning points at the end of previous bear markets.
According to a chart analyst tracking Bitcoin's structure, the break alone is not enough. What matters more is whether the price can hold above the level for a few weeks straight. Momentum currently points up, and the analyst says this could be the start of a bigger move higher, though nothing is guaranteed yet.
Three paths from here
The analyst laid out three scenarios worth watching. The first, and currently the most likely, is that Bitcoin completes one more high to form a five-part upward pattern, followed by a smaller three-part pullback. If that happens, it would signal an uptrend rather than a bounce, potentially opening the door to a run toward $120,000 or higher.
A similar, smaller version of this pattern played out in July and August, before Bitcoin rallied further. In the second scenario, the price pulls back more deeply, even down toward the $39,000 to $44,000 range, if the current move fails to hold higher ground after reaching a peak.
Yet the analyst said this would not be a disaster. Since the bigger, multi-year trend still points upward, a drop that steep would be treated as a buying opportunity rather than a warning sign.
Finally, the third scenario looks further out. If Bitcoin rallies to new highs, it could eventually reverse into a sharper corrective move, the opposite of what is happening now. The analyst warned that people will likely turn overly bullish right before that reversal, similar to how sentiment was overly bearish before this rally began.
Levels to watch this week
Immediate support sits between $78,888 and $80,359, an important zone to hold if the short-term uptrend is to continue. On the resistance side, $83,000 is the key level to watch.
The invalidation point for the more bearish scenario sits near $82,813.
The analyst said this weekend's weekly close matters a lot. Closing above the 50-week moving average, rather than below it as Bitcoin has done in recent weeks, would be a bullish signal and increase the odds of grinding higher toward the upper targets.
Source: Coinpedia Fintech News
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