Bitcoin confirmed a weekly candle close below its 200-week moving average, mirroring the pattern that preceded the 2022 bear market. The coin is holding near $63,000 as traders weigh rising odds of a Federal Reserve rate hold, net Bitcoin ETF outflows, and rising exchange reserves.
Bitcoin closes below its 200-week trend line
Bitcoin is trading around $63,000 as the new week begins. Last week's close came in below the 200-week moving average at $64,216, continuing a pattern last seen in the 2022 bear market. The pair has been ranging between $57,700 and $67,300. It touched local highs of $63,655 on Bitstamp after Sunday's close.
Analyst Benjamin Cowen noted that Bitcoin capitulated below the 200-week average in both summer 2022 and 2026, bounced, then gave up the level again in mid-August. Trader Rekt Capital added that price failed to reach his $63,220 weekly-close target, positioning for further downside within the current range.
Fed rate-hold odds climb as Japan data disappoints
Markets now price near-70% odds that the Federal Reserve holds rates at their current 3.50-3.75% range in September, up from 42% odds a month ago. Last week's CPI came in at 3.4% year-on-year, still above the Fed's 2% inflation target. Cleveland Fed president Beth Hammack, one of three dissenters who called for a hike in July, questioned public patience with a slow return to target.
Elsewhere, Japan's Q2 GDP rose 1.1% year-on-year, below the 2% expected, while the yen held near 159 per dollar. CryptoQuant contributor Axel Adler Jr. warned that rising Japanese bond yields combined with further Bank of Japan hikes "could turn into a global tightening of financial conditions" that hits stocks and Bitcoin.
ETF outflows and exchange reserves build
Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $267.2 million last week, with only one of five trading days finishing positive, totaling a mere $7.8 million, per Farside Investors data. Glassnode's newsletter pointed to a widening gap between weak consumer sentiment and record equity prices, arguing capital is rotating into stocks rather than Bitcoin.
Meanwhile, whale activity is pushing exchange reserves higher, CryptoQuant said. Binance's whale ratio reached 0.71 on Aug. 10, its highest since early March. The exchange's BTC reserves totaled 674,332 BTC on Sunday, up 2.57% month-to-date. CryptoQuant noted the long-running trend of Bitcoin leaving exchanges may be weakening as deposits increase the coin available for trading.
Source: Cointelegraph.com News
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