Bitcoin fell to near $83,000 on Monday, with President Trump's rejection of Iran's plan to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz seen as a likely catalyst behind rising oil, the dollar and Treasury yields. Most of the top 10 cryptocurrencies cooled alongside it as traders braced for this week's inflation and jobs data.
Bitcoin is trading near $83,000, down about 1.8% over 24 hours, after a quiet weekend gave way to a rough Monday open. The coin opened the week at $84,455, pushed as high as $84,972, then buckled to a low of $82,580 before settling around $82,933, down roughly $1,523 on the day.
Technicals still lean bullish despite the dip
The 50-day moving average sits above the 200-day, a golden cross that has held since the September breakout. The Relative Strength Index reads 58.7, firmly bullish without flashing overbought, while the Average Directional Index sits at 43.2, well above the 25 level that confirms a trend.
Trump's Iran rejection: a likely catalyst
In terms of likely catalysts, Trump rejected Iran's seven-day plan to end hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and Brent crude jumped back above $100 a barrel on the news. A stronger dollar and rising Treasury yields followed, a rough combination for non-yielding assets like Bitcoin.
Most of the top 10 cryptocurrencies are cooling too. BNB is down 1.98% over 24 hours and 4.28% over the week, while HYPE is off nearly 4% today and more than 6% over seven days. Total crypto market capitalization sits around $2.86 trillion, down 1.7% on the day. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index still reads 70.
Derivatives run hot as ETFs stay positive
Open interest sits at $382.29 billion, up 8.17%, and 24-hour derivatives volume has spiked 66.28% to $838.18 billion. Liquidations over the past day total $478 million, split $386.5 million long and $87.95 million short, showing leveraged bulls took the brunt of the pullback. Spot Bitcoin ETFs, meanwhile, are still net positive, extending a run that began in mid-September.
A data-heavy week ahead
There is no Fed meeting imminent, but Tuesday brings JOLTS job openings, Wednesday brings the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, and Friday closes out with the September jobs report. That data lands three weeks after the Fed's unanimous 12-0 vote on September 16 that lifted the benchmark rate to 3.75% to 4%, its first hike since 2023. Fed Governor Michael Barr has since said further tightening is likely needed to bring inflation back to target.
CME's FedWatch tool currently prices roughly a 64% chance of another quarter-point hike at the Fed's October 27-28 meeting. That is down from the 75% odds traders were pricing in a few days ago.
Source: Decrypt
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