Bitcoin is trading near $63,362, down nearly 50% from its October record, while two CryptoQuant reports point to early signs of a macro bottom. The same data shows bitcoin's price correlation with gold swinging sharply higher, reviving the "digital gold" narrative even as short-term charts show it still testing support near $62,500.
Long-term holders show cycle-bottom stress
Bitcoin may be forming a macro bottom, according to two reports from blockchain data firm CryptoQuant. The signal comes from adjusted Net Unrealized Profit/Loss data for long-term holders, a cohort usually seen as the market's most resilient.
That metric has crossed into negative territory and now sits below the broader market average, meaning even long-term holders are sitting on losses greater than the market as a whole. Historically, this exact pattern has shown up at every major cycle bottom. Analyst MorenoDV wrote: "The current structure fits that pattern."
Still, analysts caution against calling a bottom just yet — in previous cycles, this measure fell into deeper, more prolonged negative readings before a true low was in, and today's numbers haven't reached that extreme. Bitcoin could need one more capitulation leg, or a more resilient holder base could let the market bottom with less damage than past cycles.
A return to the digital-gold trade
Bitcoin's price behavior is also echoing gold's role as a safe-haven asset. Its 90-day correlation with gold has swung from nearly -0.9 in early 2026 to around +0.7, which CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju described as a return to digital-gold-era levels. The shift suggests investors are again pricing bitcoin as a scarce, non-sovereign asset that can hedge against currency debasement, fiscal stress, and geopolitical uncertainty.
But the correlation isn't a one-way signal — the two assets can just as easily fall together as rise together, and bitcoin still swings between tracking gold and trading like a liquidity-sensitive risk asset alongside the Nasdaq.
Price still tests $62,500 support
On shorter time frames, bitcoin remains stuck in a bearish setup. It was trading just above $63,431 on its 5-hour chart, holding just above a $62,500 support level that has held through three touches. The relative strength index sits near an oversold 37.5, while price stays below both its 20-period and 50-period moving averages.
A close below $62,500 could open a slide toward $61,000, while a reclaim of the $64,300–$64,900 resistance band could squeeze short sellers toward $65,500.
Sources: Bitcoin Magazine, Investing.com
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