Bitcoin held near $62,600 on Tuesday, but the calm surface masks a macro turn: Trump has reinstated the U.S. blockade of Iranian ships through the Strait of Hormuz, pushing oil higher and reviving Fed rate-hike bets. June inflation data is the next test.
Bitcoin traded near $62,600 on Tuesday, down 0.3% over 24 hours and roughly flat on the week, according to CoinDesk data. The price looks steady, but the macro backdrop under it has shifted.
President Trump reinstated the U.S. blockade of Iranian ships through the Strait of Hormuz and demanded a 20% fee on all other cargo crossing the waterway, reviving a conflict that a June peace deal had appeared to settle.
Oil climbs and rate-hike bets return
Brent crude rose as much as 2.8% to about $85 a barrel, its second day of gains, and traders lifted their bets on a Fed rate hike.
That combination runs against crypto. Higher oil feeds the inflation pressure that kept the Fed hawkish through June, and the easing of that pressure was much of what let bitcoin recover from its late-June lows near $58,000. The peace trade is now unwinding, and rate-hike odds are climbing back.
Majors mixed as inflation print looms
Bitcoin has spent a month between roughly $59,000 and $66,000, and the majors are mixed. Ether held near $1,783 and is up on the week, while Solana, XRP and Hyperliquid are all down 5% or more over seven days.
Today’s June inflation print is the more immediate test. A soft number would ease the rate-hike pressure the Iran news just revived, while a hot one, especially with oil climbing, would stack a second hawkish signal onto the first, two weeks before the Fed meets July 28 and 29.
Source: CoinDesk
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