Bitcoin opened the fourth quarter stuck in the same $82,000-$85,000 range it has traded for more than a week, after a brief push above $85,000 on Wednesday failed to hold. U.S.-listed spot ETFs posted a $148.7 million net outflow that ended a nine-day inflow streak worth $3.08 billion, and derivatives data points to cooling demand even as Bitcoin heads into Q4 off a strong third quarter.
Bitcoin stalls below $85,000 after brief breakout
Bitcoin is still stuck between $82,000 and $85,000, extending more than a week of choppy, sideways price action. Prices briefly topped $85,000 on Wednesday after weaker-than-expected U.S. inflation data cooled bets on Fed rate hikes, but bulls couldn't hold the move and spot ETFs didn't help.
The U.S.-listed ETFs registered a net outflow of $148.7 million on Wednesday, ending a nine-day inflows streak that pulled in $3.08 billion — the biggest inflow streak of the year in dollar terms. Moreover, the streak was fading before it ended: daily inflows peaked near $1 billion on Sept. 21 and steadily shrank over the following days.
ETF demand cools as overhead supply builds
The pace of daily inflows needs to pick up for prices to continue rising. According to Bitfinex: "Daily pace remains the key determinant for clearing overhead supply"
Their Absorption-to-Emission Ratio, which measures ETF buying against the roughly 450 BTC miners produce daily, has compressed from 25.6x on Sept. 21 to 1.8x on Sept. 29. BTC open interest eased to $20.9 billion from $21.8 billion over the same stretch.
Inflation print and yields cloud the rate outlook
The advance that pushed Bitcoin above $85,000 followed a Personal Consumption Expenditures reading that came in at 3.4% year-on-year in August, versus expectations of 3.7%. But Treasury yields hit fresh multi-year peaks on Wednesday despite the soft print, and gains were further squeezed as optimism around AI chipmaking earnings pulled flows toward tech stocks. Glassnode noted that BTC-denominated open interest has fallen almost 20% while price rose 35% from its August low, which it said could make the rally less vulnerable to leverage flushes.
Bitcoin enters the new quarter after posting third-quarter gains of 42.7%, its best Q3 performance since 2017, according to CoinGlass data cited by Cointelegraph. Markets now await Friday's nonfarm payrolls report for further cues on the rate path.
Sources: CoinDesk, Cointelegraph, Investing.com
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