Bitcoin traded at $64,466 on July 26, giving back most of a rally that pushed it above $66,900 earlier in the week. Spot ETF inflows exceeding $900 million reversed on July 23, and traders now face a July 28-29 Fed decision alongside an August 7 Senate deadline on the CLARITY Act.
Bitcoin surrendered most of its weekly rally, trading at $64,466 on July 26 after failing to hold the $66,910 high it set on July 21. Sellers then slid the price lower for three straight sessions into the low $64,000s by July 25. Three storylines now crowd the same stretch of calendar: the Fed meeting, the August CLARITY Act deadline, and the possibility of two bitcoin forks arriving in the same month.
ETF buying broke on July 23
U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows exceeding $900 million over six to seven trading sessions through midweek, led by BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC. That buying reversed outflows that topped $4 billion in June.
But the streak ended on July 23, when about $225 million in net outflows hit the funds, driven mostly by IBIT redemptions. Sentiment stayed defensive alongside it — the Crypto Fear and Greed Index held in “Fear” territory with readings in the mid-20s to low 30s.
The Fed sets the tone on July 28-29
The Federal Reserve’s benchmark rate has sat between 3.50% and 3.75% since its last move, and traders widely expect a hold. Recent futures pricing put hike odds around 34%. Chair Kevin Warsh will run his second FOMC meeting since taking office in May, with the statement due at 2:00 p.m. ET.
Cooler June inflation data helped fuel the recovery from the high $50,000s. However, Brent crude near $90 to $100 a barrel, tied partly to tensions involving Iran and Red Sea shipping disruptions, has kept inflation risks alive alongside heavy AI-related spending by major tech companies.
Where the levels sit
Charts show support building near $63,800 to $64,200, with a deeper floor at $61,800 to $63,100 where onchain data shows heavy trading activity. On the upside, $65,500 to $66,000 has capped recent rallies, and a close above $67,200 to $68,000 would open the door to $70,000 to $72,000. Daily RSI sat near 49 as of July 26, a neutral reading.
Congress supplies the second variable. The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act passed the House in 2025 and cleared the Senate Banking Committee, but a floor vote before the August 7 recess remains uncertain. Senate Majority Leader John Thune indicated there seems little likelihood of a final vote before the summer recess.
A hold with cautious language on inflation could send bitcoin back toward $66,000 to $68,000, while a hawkish surprise would likely push the price toward $61,000 or lower.
Sources: Bitcoin News, CoinGape
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