Bitcoin's share of underwater addresses has fallen sharply, and on-chain analyst Crypto Dan says drops of that size have historically closed out bear markets rather than produced short bounces. The move follows a Fed rate hike and a stalled Senate vote on the CLARITY Act, though separate chain data shows bitcoin still boxed in between two key price levels.
Bitcoin's share of addresses sitting at a loss has dropped sharply, and on-chain analyst Crypto Dan says moves of that size have historically ended bear markets rather than just producing a short bounce. The call went out after two macro jolts hit crypto: a rate hike from the Fed and a stalled Senate vote on the CLARITY Act.
What the UTXO Data Shows
Crypto Dan's argument centers on UTXOs, the individual chunks of BTC sitting in wallets, and how many of them currently sit below what their holders paid for them. That share has fallen by a wide margin, and the analyst pointed to past cycles where drops of a similar size didn't just produce a brief bounce — they brought the bearish phase to a close and shifted the market into a bull cycle.
He flagged the rate hike and the CLARITY Act's failure as near-term risks, but he argued that neither had been enough to undo the shift already underway.
Bitcoin Stuck Between Two Levels
A separate read on the chain data, from analyst Darkfost, lines up with that view. Bitcoin is holding above $71,300, a cost basis that only counts units actively moving through the market, and Darkfost noted this level was tested twice near the end of the 2023 bear market before the next cycle took off.
On the other side sits $79,800, the break-even point for invested capital, where bitcoin keeps getting rejected — a pattern Darkfost also traced back to that same 2023 stretch. That leaves bitcoin stuck between the two levels.
Source: CryptoPotato
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