Bitcoin touched $57,735 on the first day of Q3 2026, then rebounded to $64,174 by August 11 — a pattern that may already mark the current market cycle's bottom on the quarterly chart, even though most market participants have overlooked it. The signal stays unconfirmed until the quarterly candle closes on September 30, and a dip below the July low is still possible before then.
Bitcoin fell to $57,735 on July 1, 2026, the opening tick of the third quarter, before buyers stepped back in. The pullback may already mark the bottom of the current market cycle, based on a reading of the quarterly Bollinger Bands.
A precise test of quarterly support
The broader market has spent the summer grinding between $60,000 and $66,000, as short-term traders push the price in both directions without a clear trend. On the three-month chart, though, the coin printed a precise test of a long-term support level.
On July 1, the price immediately dropped to that local low before finding strong buying interest near the middle line of the 3-month Bollinger Bands, then at $57,431. By August 11, Bitcoin had rebounded to $64,174, a gain of nearly 10% from the July low.
Echoes of 2015, 2019 and 2022
Historical context underscores the strength of this zone. Similar tests of the quarterly moving average occurred during the final stages of market cleansing in the 2015, 2019 and 2022 cycles, according to the analysis.
The trap inside an open candle
The quarterly candle that opened at $57,735 will not close until September 30, so it stays exposed to further swings. Amid reduced seasonal liquidity, major players could still push the price below the July low and collect stop orders from panicked traders before then.
For the long-term uptrend, that kind of swing would not change the outlook — only the quarter's final close matters. If the candle body closes above $57,431 on September 30, the technical foundation for a powerful autumn growth cycle would be in place, confirming that the bottom has indeed already been reached.
Source: U.Today
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