Bitcoin's climb from the low $60,000s to just under $80,000 is a forced short squeeze rather than fresh demand, trader Nonzee argues, and the next move is down. Nonzee maps a retreat toward $45,000 to $48,000 once the squeeze fades, even as other analysts tie the rally to a weakening dollar and expanded Treasury bond buying.
Bitcoin has spent the past week ripping from the low $60,000s to just under $80,000, but to trader Nonzee, none of it looks like conviction. They call the move a trap built on forced buying rather than real demand, arguing the next leg is down, not up, according to more than $3.1 billion in short positions wiped out during the run, of which Bitcoin alone accounted for roughly $1.65 billion.
A liquidity squeeze, not a reversal
Nonzee ties the squeeze to two catalysts: Trump putting the CLARITY Act back in the headlines, and the Treasury Department increasing its long-term bond buybacks. Both, they argue, forced shorts out and pulled fresh longs into an already stretched market. Nonzee wrote: "That was not a reversal. It was a liquidity squeeze."
Nonzee's read is that the $70,000 fair value gap has been filled, the short squeeze has run its course, and FOMO buying is happening in real time. Distribution comes next, then a selloff, with a downside path running from $77,000 to $67,000, then $55,000, before a final leg to between $48,000 and $45,000.
A weaker dollar tells a different story
Separately, Bitcoin gained 23.2% over seven days as gold climbed and the dollar weakened, reviving the so-called debasement trade. The move followed the Treasury's announcement that it would at least double planned purchases of longer-term government debt, which sent Bitcoin climbing above $77,000 on Friday after weeks stuck between $62,000 and $67,000. Gold climbed to $4,661 over the same stretch.
More than $4 billion in short positions were liquidated during the rally, according to CoinGlass data.
Where Bitcoin stands now
Bitcoin was trading around $78,000 at the time of Nonzee's warning, up roughly 2% on the day and about 22% over the past week, swinging between $76,000 and $79,000 over the prior 24 hours. It remains 39% below its all-time high of around $126,000, set in October 2025, and is still down 33% on a one-year basis despite the bounce.
Sources: CryptoPotato, Decrypt
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