Bitcoin's realized profit and loss ratio has dropped to -0.35, a 43-month low that Cryptoquant reads as a bottom signal. The reading landed just as Michael Saylor's Strategy sold 3,588 BTC, yet bitcoin rebounded above $64,000 on July 7.
Cryptoquant says an on-chain gauge that bitcoin bulls have watched for months just flashed a bottom signal. The blockchain analytics firm reported that bitcoin's realized profit and loss ratio, which measures the net share of supply sitting in profit or loss against total supply, has fallen to -0.35, its lowest reading in 43 months.
A gauge back at FTX-era depths
The last time the metric sank this far was December 2022, during the bear market that followed the collapse of crypto exchange FTX, when bitcoin traded below $16,000. Cryptoquant's analysts wrote that the indicator has historically marked bitcoin bottoms "with extreme precision", pointing to comparable prints in 2015 and 2019 that preceded major recoveries rather than further crashes.
When this much of the supply is underwater, the holders most likely to panic-sell have largely already done so, which leaves fewer sellers to push the price lower. When the data was captured, bitcoin traded near just under $60,000, only about 16% above its realized price — the average cost basis of all coins on the network.
Strategy sells into the signal
The reading arrived at a loaded moment, because the most prominent seller is bitcoin's best-known permabull. Strategy Inc. (Nasdaq: MSTR), led by executive chairman Michael Saylor, disclosed in a July 6 filing that it sold 3,588 BTC for roughly $216 million between June 29 and July 5, using the proceeds to fund preferred dividends and rebuild its dollar reserves to $2.55 billion.
The market absorbed the sale quickly, but bitcoin still sits roughly 50% below its October 2025 record of $126,080. Even so, it has held the $60,000 area through the heaviest selling pressure of the cycle so far.
Analysts weigh the odds
Swan Bitcoin's Adam Livingston noted that when bitcoin has traded at comparable discounts to its trend, forward returns have averaged 41% over six months and 81% over twelve months. Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani argued the current 54% drawdown is far smaller than the 75% to 90% declines that ended past cycles.
Still, nothing here makes the bottom certain, because on-chain indicators describe conditions rather than guarantee outcomes. Macro pressure from the unwinding AI trade and continued ETF outflows could still test the lows, and Strategy's monetization program leaves room for up to $1.25 billion in total sales.
Source: Bitcoin News
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