The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 5.47% on Sept. 24, its highest level since February 2002, while the 10-year note settled at 5.18%, a level last seen in July 2007. The move followed the Federal Reserve's Sept. 16 rate hike, and Peter Schiff, Bill Ackman, Brian Armstrong and Arthur Hayes are reading the spike in four different ways.
Both readings mark 2026 highs on the Treasury's daily yield curve. The move happened fast: just a week earlier, on Sept. 17, the 10-year sat at 4.94%, so it has climbed 24 basis points in five trading sessions.
Yields climb fast after the Fed's hike
The trigger came on Sept. 16, when the Federal Reserve raised its target range by a quarter point to 3.75%-4%, the first hike since July 2023. Six of 18 Fed policymakers expect at least one more increase this year.
Four takes, no consensus
Gold advocate Peter Schiff argues soaring spending, debt, inflation and de-dollarization will keep pushing rates higher. He posted Thursday night: "Enjoy these low rates while you can as they won't last long."
Pershing Square's Bill Ackman took aim at the Fed instead, arguing that demand for compute and energy in the race for "super intelligence" may not respond to higher rates — meaning the hike could stoke inflation rather than cool it. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong replied that higher rates point toward higher government deficits and more money printing, and that curbing money printing beyond economic growth is the real fix.
Hayes watches the MOVE index
Bitmex co-founder Arthur Hayes is tracking a different gauge: the MOVE index, which measures expected Treasury market volatility. The index closed at 104.6 on Sept. 24, up from 76.2 a week earlier and its highest since March 30. Hayes says a reading above 130 would force some form of policy response; the index last cleared that level during the April 2025 tariff shock, when it peaked near 139.9.
So far, bitcoin's price has ignored the bond market, currently trading above $84,000.
Source: Bitcoin News
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