Brent crude jumped 3.4% to near $77 a barrel after US strikes on Iranian military assets, snapping the second-quarter slide. WTI is defending support around $72.72 and Brent is holding a channel floor at $76.56, even as the EIA cut its 2026 price forecasts sharply.
Brent crude rose 3.4% to trade near $77 per barrel after American forces struck Iranian air defense systems, command and control networks, coastal radar sites, and over sixty small boats of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The move reversed part of a second-quarter slide that had pulled futures back toward pre-conflict levels.
Where the benchmarks sit
The rebound has left both benchmarks working back toward overhead resistance. WTI is trading at $72.72 on the daily chart, testing a Fibonacci retracement level after rebounding from a $66.83 low, with the next major resistance mapped at $80.21 to $83.37. Brent trades at $76.56 on the two-hour frame, holding channel support at $76.09 with resistance overhead at $78.24 to $80.11.
Both charts sit inside an overall bearish trend that runs down from a $110 high. On the supply side, OPEC+ maintained output discipline as non-OPEC supply from US shale kept growing, while US crude inventories hover near working lows.
The forecast cuts underneath
Even with the bounce, the official outlook has turned lower. The US Energy Information Administration cut its 2026 Brent forecast to $81.91 per barrel, down from $95.39, and trimmed its WTI view to $76.26 from $88.32. For 2027 the EIA sees Brent averaging $64.76, down from $79.39, with WTI at $60.76. In 2025 Brent and WTI averaged $69.04 and $65.4 per barrel, respectively.
The recovery could also rekindle concerns about inflation among policymakers, since futures had fallen through the second quarter as regional tensions eased. For now, price action for oil traders hinges on whether Brent can clear $78.24 and WTI can break $80.21 before the softer forecast reasserts itself.
Sources: FXLeaders, FXEmpire, Apa.az
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