Broadcom's stock fell even after fiscal Q3 2026 revenue jumped 86% and AI chip sales tripled year-over-year. The company raised its full-year AI revenue forecast to $58 billion, yet shares still trade 29% below their 52-week high after a softer-than-expected Q4 guide.
The chipmaker just reported an 86% jump in quarterly revenue and tripled its AI chip sales. The stock fell anyway.
A big beat meets a soft guide
The semiconductor giant posted fiscal Q3 2026 revenue of $29.59 billion, with AI semiconductor revenue alone hitting $16.7 billion, a 221% increase year-over-year. Broadcom also raised its full-year AI revenue forecast to $58 billion from $56 billion and lifted its longer-term targets to $115 billion in AI chip revenue for fiscal 2027 and $230 billion for fiscal 2028.
Yet the culprit behind the post-earnings dip was Q4 fiscal 2026 revenue guidance of approximately $34.8 billion, which landed slightly below what some analysts had penciled in. That guide still implies AI revenue of about $21.7 billion for the quarter, a 236% increase from the same period last year.
Investors weigh past growth against future guidance
Shares now trade around $353, roughly 29% below their 52-week high of $495 and up a modest 6% on the year. The stock market had already priced in substantial AI-driven growth by the time shares peaked near $495 in early 2026.
That gap looks wide next to Broadcom's underlying performance: the six percent year-to-date gain looks underwhelming given that earnings are roughly 43% higher than where they stood at the start of the year. The average analyst price target sits around $533, implying roughly 50% upside from current levels, and analysts have flagged supply constraints, not demand weakness, as the binding factor on near-term growth.
Concentrated customer base cuts both ways
Broadcom's customer list offers some reassurance: the company counts Google, Meta, OpenAI, and Anthropic among its key clients, all of which have publicly committed to spending tens of billions on AI infrastructure. Multi-year contracts with these players give Broadcom unusual revenue visibility compared with many peers, but they also concentrate its fortunes in a handful of customers that could eventually bring more chip design in-house.
Whether the market re-rates Broadcom higher will likely depend on whether Q4 results clear that conservative guide.
Source: Crypto Briefing
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