Turkey's lira is sliding toward 49 per dollar while the central bank's reserves keep shrinking, reviving the question of whether it returns to the gold sales it made in March. The CBRT has not authorized a new sale, but this year's data shows exactly how it would do it again if pressure accelerates.
USD/TRY is trading around 48.80 on September 21, pushing toward the 49 level. The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey is already reporting another decline in its reserve position, raising a question for both the lira and gold markets: will renewed currency stress force the CBRT back into the gold strategy it used in March.
Turkey already used gold to defend the lira once this year
There is precedent. During the first quarter, Turkey became the largest reported official-sector gold seller, and World Gold Council data showed Turkish official-sector gold holdings falling by around 70 tonnes, approximately 10% of its official-sector holdings at the time, with most of the decline concentrated in March. Turkey also used an additional 80 tonnes through gold swaps for foreign exchange and liquidity purposes. Governor Fatih Karahan later explained that a significant portion of those swap transactions were structured so the gold would eventually return to reserves.
That activity slowed sharply once the immediate stress passed. Turkey sold only around 4 tonnes during the second quarter. July then added just 1 tonne, taking reported Turkish gold sales for 2026 to approximately 85 tonnes through July.
Reserves are falling again as the lira nears 49
Pressure is building once more. USD/TRY sits near 48.80 today, close to 49, while the reserve buffer keeps eroding. CBRT gross reserves fell roughly $4 billion in the week ending September 4, to about $184.2 billion from $188.2 billion. They then fell another $5.5 billion in the week ending September 11, to $178.7 billion. Net reserves excluding swaps declined from $55.9 billion to $53.4 billion and then to roughly $50 billion over the same two weeks. In total, Turkey lost roughly $9.5 billion of gross reserves across those two reported weeks while USD/TRY kept moving higher.
A harsher external backdrop raises the stakes
The environment beyond Turkey's borders has also turned less comfortable. The Federal Reserve has resumed tightening, and the dollar index sits around 100.23 while Brent crude remains above $100 per barrel. Higher dollar rates increase pressure on emerging-market currencies, and expensive oil adds a separate strain for an energy importer such as Turkey.
No sale is confirmed yet, but March set the playbook
The CBRT has several possible lines of defence: tolerating continued controlled depreciation, drawing on conventional FX reserves, tightening financial conditions, letting state banks intervene, or adjusting swaps. Gold becomes attractive when authorities want extra foreign-currency liquidity without burning conventional reserves too fast, and Turkey has already shown the mechanism works. If a renewed program reaches tens of tonnes, it would turn Turkey from a marginal seller back into one of the largest sources of central bank gold supply.
Meanwhile, the World Gold Council has described Turkey's first-quarter activity as tactical, pointing to the country's history of tapping large gold holdings in times of need. But there is currently no public announcement from the CBRT indicating that another major gold liquidation has been authorized; the case rests on the balance-sheet mechanics Turkey already demonstrated this year. If USD/TRY accelerates through 49 while several more billion dollars disappear from usable reserves, March provides the roadmap for what comes next.
Source: Investing.com (Commodities Analysis & Opinion)
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