China's liquefied natural gas imports are headed for a second straight monthly decline as Middle East war risk keeps spot prices elevated. State buyers are reportedly in talks to secure long-term supply from exporters outside the Strait of Hormuz, seeking to cut exposure to Gulf producers even as Qatar extends a force majeure on exports.
China's imports of liquefied natural gas are on course to book their second consecutive monthly decline because of significantly higher prices driven by the war in the Middle East. September LNG flows to China are seen at 5.3 million tons, according to Kpler data cited by Bloomberg.
Spot prices near double last year's levels
That September figure is 8% lower than LNG imports for September 2025, though slightly higher than August flows, which Kpler estimated at 5.2 million tons. China has curbed purchases as prices on the spot market topped $20 per million British thermal units in August, reaching $26 per mmBtu in early September — about a twofold increase from a year ago.
Higher prices are discouraging other Asian buyers as well. Kpler forecasts total Asian inflows at the lowest in eight years, at 20.09 million tons, versus 22.27 million tons in September last year. For China, August and September mark a reversal of a buying spree that began in May, when the country was purchasing LNG at rates higher than the prior year for three straight months.
Beijing looks past the Persian Gulf
China's giant state LNG importers are reportedly in talks to secure long-term supply from exporters that don't need the Strait of Hormuz, as the world's biggest LNG buyer seeks to reduce its exposure to gas deliveries from the Persian Gulf. China will not seek to cancel its binding contracts with Qatar, but it is exploring options to reduce that exposure.
Qatar, meanwhile, just extended its force majeure on exports of the superchilled fuel, a move likely to keep prices elevated for longer as demand picks up ahead of the Northern Hemisphere's heating season.
Source: Commodities Analysis & Opinion
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