China's trade surplus passed $1 trillion in the first 10 months of 2026, two months ahead of the year-end mark. Exports and imports both jumped in October, driven largely by AI-related trade. Analysts point to a possible slowdown next year as the US truce expires in January and friction with Europe persists.
China's trade surplus reached $1.04 trillion in the 10 months through October, customs data showed on Tuesday. The 2025 full-year surplus was a record $1.2 trillion, when China crossed the $1 trillion mark for the first time.
Partner countries have been raising concerns over Beijing's exports, which they say are undercutting local industries. The International Monetary Fund has also urged China to shift from exports toward domestic consumption.
October exports and imports surge
Exports jumped 35.2% from a year earlier in October, beating Reuters-polled economists' expectations for a 33.5% rise. Imports rose 41.6%, against analyst estimates of a 32% rise, according to the same poll.
However, surplus growth in October slowed to a six-month low as imports surged. Lynn Song, chief economist for Greater China at ING Bank, said China remains on pace for a new record high for the trade surplus by year-end.
Tianchen Xu, senior economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit, said import growth was mainly driven by tech-related goods, critical minerals such as copper, and energy supplies. Imports of high-tech products rose 72% by value from a year ago, according to CNBC's calculations of official figures.
Headwinds from the US and Europe
Chinese exports to the US rose 32.9% by value from a year earlier, while imports grew nearly 35%, leaving a surplus of $32.7 billion. Washington and Beijing agreed in September to extend their trade truce by two months, to January.
Meanwhile, the EU reached an agreement with Beijing last month to limit imports of Chinese hybrid vehicles. China's shipments to the bloc grew 24.4% in October, widening the surplus to $33.4 billion.
Citi Research analyst Yuanliu Hu said export growth could slow to 8% in 2027 as favorable base effects fade and global AI investment moderates. Presidents Xi Jinping and Donald Trump are set to meet at the APEC leaders' summit in Shenzhen next week.
Source: CNBC
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