Circle stock (CRCL) closed Friday at $90.60, gaining on the day but ending the week down 7.53%, as traders positioned for this week's Federal Reserve rate decision. Markets now assign an 87.3% probability to a quarter-point increase, a move that could lift the yields Circle earns on reserves backing USDC and EURC. The stock holds $90 support with $95 resistance overhead heading into Wednesday's announcement.
CRCL closes higher but books a weekly loss
Circle stock (CRCL) closed Friday at $90.60, up 0.31%, as investors weighed rate exposure against tighter financial conditions. Shares traded between $90.14 and $95.80, showing demand but selling near the session high. The stock still finished 7.53% lower for the week, although its monthly gain stayed above 26%. Bitcoin traded above $77,260 during the session, while XRP held above $1.35 ahead of the CLARITY Act vote.
Fed rate odds and Circle's reserve earnings
Markets assign an 87.3% probability to a quarter-point Federal Reserve increase at the September 15-16 meeting. That estimate rose after August core inflation increased 0.3%, exceeding the 0.2% forecast, while headline inflation held at 3.4% and oil above $100 kept price pressure elevated. Fed officials announce the decision Wednesday, centering policy expectations in Circle's stock outlook.
A rate increase could support Circle's reserve earnings, which track yields on assets backing USDC and EURC. Circle reported $668 million in second-quarter reserve income, representing 95.2% of quarterly revenue. Average USDC circulation increased 25.2%, though a 66-basis-point yield decline reduced the benefit from that growth.
Catalysts and levels to watch
Attention turns to Tuesday's CLARITY Act vote in the Senate, a catalyst for digital-asset regulation, before the Fed's Wednesday rate call. Thursday brings US housing figures as higher mortgage costs deepen concerns about economic weakness, and Japan releases inflation data Friday ahead of its own central bank decision. Trend-following funds could sell $140 billion to $150 billion in US stocks if markets decline, adding to September's weak seasonality across stocks, crypto, and metals.
The $90 area forms immediate support after Friday's low reached $90.14, and a decisive break could expose $87.14, an earlier closing level. Bulls need to reclaim $95, then the psychological $100 level, before sustained buying could reopen $103 to $105, then $107 and $110.
Source: CoinGape
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