Citi expects uranium to trade above $100 per pound over the next three months, citing rising nuclear power investment and tighter fuel requirements. The bank's longer-term price benchmark has already climbed to a record $96 per pound, and new military demand could add further pressure on supply.
Citi analysts maintain a bullish outlook on uranium, projecting the commodity will trade above $100 per pound over the next three months as nuclear power investment grows and fuel requirements tighten. The bank's longer-term uranium benchmark has risen to a record $96 per pound, continuing an uninterrupted advance that began in January 2025 and extending an uptrend dating back to 2018.
Nuclear pipeline underpins demand
Nuclear power demand stays supported by competitive electricity economics and a growing project pipeline. In the United States, several small modular reactors are already under construction, and two or three more projects could win approval later this year. Three nuclear plants are also being restarted, alongside power uprates backed by the Department of Energy's UPRISE program.
Military program adds a new demand source
Military demand could become another driver of uranium consumption. The U.S. Army's $2.2 billion Janus program has selected five developers to build microreactors at five military installations, with a longer-term ambition to deploy more than 20 units. The selected reactors are expected to use HALEU and TRISO-based fuel, potentially creating new demand across uranium enrichment, fuel fabrication and other nuclear fuel-cycle services.
Bull and bear scenarios diverge sharply
Citi assigns a 25% probability to a bull scenario in which uranium prices average $99 per pound in 2026. Under that scenario, junior miners failing to meet contractual commitments could be forced to purchase material aggressively in the spot market, adding upward pressure, while stronger utility stockpiling, reactor restarts, lifetime extensions and new nuclear projects could further increase procurement.
The bear case, given a 15% probability, puts the 2026 average at $85 per pound. That outcome assumes Russian enriched uranium returns to U.S. and European markets, enrichment prices fall to around $150 per separative work unit, and at least 70% of junior mining projects scheduled for the next five years enter production successfully.
Source: Economy News
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