Senate Majority Leader John Thune has signaled the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act is unlikely to pass before Congress breaks for its summer recess, with the fight over limits on President Donald Trump’s crypto business at the center of the delay. Analysts and prediction-market traders have cut the odds the bill becomes law in 2026 to roughly one in three.
The crypto market structure bill is running out of road. Senate Majority Leader John Thune said Thursday it was unlikely the Clarity Act could meet its goal of passing before the long summer recess, a deadline the industry had treated as critical. Missing it could sharply reduce the odds the legislation advances in 2026.
An ethics fight over Trump’s crypto business
At the center sits a first-of-its-kind ethics section, revealed this week when the final working draft circulated. It temporarily bars senior government officials — the president, vice president, members of Congress and federal judges — from issuing or sponsoring cryptocurrencies, and the limit ends at the start of 2029.
Democrats say the enforcement falls short. The draft hands the job to the Department of Justice, which could not fine a violator more than $500,000, while Democrats want state attorneys general to hold that power. Senator Elizabeth Warren said Trump made more than $1.4 billion from cryptocurrency ventures in 2025 and argued the bill does nothing to stop him.
The White House sees it differently. Crypto adviser Patrick Witt said the concession gave Democrats precisely what they had demanded, noting Trump agreed to restrictions no other president has accepted. Banking groups have piled on too, opposing rewards on stablecoin holdings that they warn could pull deposits away from traditional banks.
Analysts and traders cut the odds
Galaxy Research lowered its estimate that the bill becomes law this year to 30%, down from 50% less than a month ago. Its head of research, Alex Thorn, said the coalition needed to pass the bill was not visibly in place. According to The Block: “The calendar is no longer merely an obstacle. It is now the enemy,” Thorn wrote.
Prediction markets tell the same story. Polymarket traders now give the Clarity Act a 33% chance of becoming law in 2026, with more than $2.56 million wagered. Republicans hold 53 Senate seats and need at least seven Democrats to reach the 60 votes usually required to advance the bill.
Attention has shifted to the window after the November midterms. Wintermute policy head Ron Hammond argued the votes exist but election-year politics have drowned out the bill’s bipartisan support, a pressure he expects to ease only once voters go to the polls.
Sources: CoinDesk, The Block, crypto.news
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