Prediction markets sharply cut the Clarity Act's odds of passing this year after Senate Republicans rejected a Democratic counteroffer, leaving the crypto market-structure bill in limbo hours before Tuesday's procedural vote. Republicans hold 53 Senate seats but still need several Democratic votes to clear the 60-vote threshold, and multiple GOP senators remain uncommitted.
Odds of passage plunge
Traders on Polymarket now put the Clarity Act's chance of becoming law this year at just 14%, down from around 30% a day earlier. On Kalshi, a contract for a crypto market-structure bill becoming law before Oct. 1, 2027 fell to 36%, down from around 53% Monday morning. Separately, CryptoSlate put the bill's odds of enactment below 20%, down from about 34% over the previous 24 hours.
The reversal followed a weekend in which Republicans, led by Sen. Cynthia Lummis, released what they called a final draft of the bill incorporating more than 100 changes requested by Democrats. Yet Senate Democrats sent Republicans a counteroffer Monday night, and Republicans said it barely moved from the position Democrats held before the August recess.
Republicans and Democrats trade blame
Lummis said the Democratic proposal offered little new ground. According to CoinDesk: "Senate Democrats' counter offer looks identical to their opening position at the start of recess." She added that Republicans had already made concessions Democrats had sought, while Democrats had not moved.
Sen. Mark Warner pushed back, telling Semafor that Democrats' counteroffer reflects language they have been seeking for close to a year, not a new demand.
A narrow path to sixty votes
The Senate is due to vote Tuesday afternoon on whether to invoke cloture, which needs 60 votes even though Republicans hold only 53 seats — meaning Republicans need at least seven Democratic votes to advance the bill. Sens. Susan Collins and John Cornyn have not committed to supporting it, and Sen. John Curtis has said he will back opening debate but that the current text would not win his vote on final passage.
Coinbase Chief Policy Officer Faryar Shirzad argued the bill already addresses seven principles Democratic senators outlined a year ago for acceptable crypto market-structure legislation. Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse urged senators to accept the current text rather than hold out for further changes.
Lummis has warned that a defeat could push the digital-asset industry overseas and leave U.S. leadership on the sidelines, though a successful vote would only open floor debate over amendments, ethics provisions and banking issues that still divide the two parties.
Sources: CoinDesk, The Block, CryptoSlate
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