Silver traded at $62.57 an ounce on September 16, about 12% below where it started 2026, even as new copper mining data show producers shifting toward a process that yields no silver byproduct. The shift adds to a shortfall Metals Focus and the Silver Institute forecast at 46.3 million ounces for 2026.
Silver dropped to $62.57 an ounce late on September 16, against gold at $4,240.10, a gold-silver ratio of 67.8, even as new mining data show a shift in how copper is produced that removes a byproduct source of the metal from the market.
The metal is about 12% below where it started 2026 and roughly 48% below its January peak of $121.58, and it has fallen 5.8% since the end of August, against 4.1% for gold. The drop came after the Federal Reserve raised rates a quarter point to 3.75% to 4.00%, its first increase since 2023, and projected another rate rise before year-end. A war at sea pushed Brent crude above $105 and Saudi Arabia shut its main export pipeline, but markets read the disruption as inflation, and inflation as a reason for higher rates rather than a reason to buy silver.
Copper's Two Production Routes Split
World copper mine production fell 1.1% in the first half of 2026 against an April forecast of 1.6% growth, according to the International Copper Study Group. Copper made through flotation and smelting carries silver out of the rock with it, but copper made by pouring acid over oxide ore and plating it directly does not. In the first half, concentrate output fell 2.6% while leached cathode rose 4.3% — the route that carries no silver grew.
Chile's output fell 6.6%, Indonesian concentrate output dropped 32% with the Grasberg mine still constrained, and concentrate production in Congo fell 34% after seismic damage at Kamoa-Kakula. Morgan Stanley now expects 2026 to be the first year of falling copper mine output since 2017.
Byproduct Math Adds to the Shortfall
Copper mines supplied 237.3 million ounces of silver in 2025, 28.0% of all mined silver, per Metals Focus and the Silver Institute. A 2.6% decline on that base implies roughly 3.1 million ounces less silver for the half already recorded. Combined with lead and zinc declines, the sensitivity is near 13 million ounces, against a forecast 2026 shortfall of 46.3 million ounces running into a sixth consecutive year. Every ounce figure here is an estimate, since the study groups measure copper, lead and zinc tonnage rather than silver directly; the measured figure arrives in next year's survey.
Individual Mines Diverge as Acid Costs Rise
With copper near $14,000 a tonne, Chile's Collahuasi is weighing a restart of an idled leaching plant, and broker SP Angel puts the target near 6,000 tonnes of cathode next year. This comes even as Gulf sulphuric acid has risen from $155 to $400 a tonne since the war began. Capstone's Mantoverde mine is moving the other way, cutting heap leaching by roughly 5,000 tonnes of cathode in 2026 and shifting toward the concentrate process that carries silver, because high-carbonate ore is uneconomic at current acid prices.
The combined 13 million ounce sensitivity is about 1.5% of forecast 2026 mine supply of 844.1 million ounces. A market that fell 5.8% in the first half of September is not pricing any of it in.
Source: Commodities Analysis & Opinion
Trading involves risk.
Risk Disclaimer
