Deadly storms in Chile have killed 13 people and disrupted operations at several major copper mines, adding fresh strain to a global supply squeeze that already pushed copper to a record high in June. Anglo American, Antofagasta, Lundin Mining and Codelco all reported disruptions, and analysts say prices could climb further as tariff uncertainty and tight scrap supply collide with the outages.
Heavy snow, flash flooding and high winds swept across Chile over the past week, killing 13 people and disrupting mines run by Anglo American, Antofagasta, Lundin Mining and state-owned Codelco. Copper is essential for smartphones, EVs and AI data centers, so any hit to output ripples through several industries at once.
Chile produces more than a fifth of global copper supply, and the disruption lands in a market already distorted by U.S. tariff expectations and tighter scrap availability in China. Antofagasta halted mining and processing at its Los Pelambres operation, and Barrick evacuated staff from its Chilean sites because of the extreme weather.
Lundin Mining said its Caserones mine, where power lines were damaged by heavy snowfall, could take two to three weeks to restart after suspending operations on July 18. Its nearby Candelaria mine kept running on existing stockpiles despite rain disruption, later returning to full capacity.
A supply squeeze already stretched thin
Copper hit an all-time high of $6.70 per pound, or $13,643 per metric ton, on June 2 as fears of a global shortage intensified. Chile, the world's biggest single copper producer, downgraded this year's output by 2% to 5.3 million tonnes, which Natalie Scott-Gray, senior metals demand strategist at StoneX, expects to mark a second consecutive year of declining production.
Ewa Manthey, commodities strategist at ING, said the storms alone are unlikely to upend the copper market. However, they reinforce a broader trend: supply is struggling to keep pace with demand, with tariff uncertainty and tighter concentrate availability already weighing on the market.
Miners turn bullish as inventories tighten
Anglo American reported a 35% jump in first-half earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, to $4 billion, aided by higher copper prices. Chief executive Duncan Wanblad said the company, which has reshaped its business around copper, is "very, very bullish" on the metal's fundamentals.
Nearly two-thirds, or 64%, of visible global copper inventories are now held in the U.S. Scott-Gray said stocks on the London Metal Exchange and Shanghai Futures Exchange sit below their five-year averages, a sign of genuine physical tightness in the market.
Another record high in sight?
Three-month copper on the LME was trading around $13,750, and Scott-Gray said another record high this year is not out of the question given speculative net-long positions across major exchanges. She expects Chinese buying to ease in August, slowing withdrawals from LME stockpiles, while the biggest unknown remains how the U.S. administration handles potential Section 232 tariffs.
Source: CNBC
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