Democrats have won control of both chambers of Congress, giving them more leverage over President Donald Trump's agenda. Experts told CNBC that Democratic majorities could bring tougher oversight of the Iran and Ukraine wars, while Trump keeps wide authority over foreign policy.
Democrats won control of the House. The Associated Press is projecting a Senate majority after the party flipped Republican seats in Iowa, Kansas, North Carolina, Ohio, South Carolina, and Texas. As a result, Trump could intensify his focus on foreign policy in his final two years in office while facing greater scrutiny over the wars in Iran and Ukraine, experts told CNBC.
Iran war powers face a Democratic Congress
Laurel Rapp, director of Chatham House's U.S. and North America Programme, said the Iran war was a major issue in this election cycle amid soaring fuel prices, food costs, and inflation. The war began when Trump launched joint strikes with Israel on Feb. 28.
Rapp said Democrats will seek votes in the House and the Senate to restrain the administration on Iran war powers, though it is another matter whether that will bind it. Democrats could also use the power of the purse to limit spending on U.S. military and other Iran-related costs. However, making a measure binding over a presidential veto would require enough votes in Congress to override it.
Trump keeps his foreign policy authority
J.C. Lintzenich, visiting senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund, said the president is not a lame duck. According to Lintzenich: "this election changes the Congress; it does not change the president". He added that foreign policy is still executed by the president and his appointed officials.
Lintzenich said the outgoing Congress was more willing to let the White House slide, while a Democratic Congress would use its Article I powers over legislation, spending, and oversight to hold the White House more closely to existing law.
Berenberg sees foreign policy noise ahead
Berenberg Chief Economist Holger Schmieding predicts a final round of bombing in Iran, with Trump ultimately striking a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by 2027. He also said Congress will most likely not grant Trump the money for an expensive campaign similar to the Iran war.
On Ukraine, Schmieding said Trump will likely try to pressure Ukraine to de facto surrender to Russian demands, but he sees that as a tail risk rather than a likely outcome because the president has lost support on the matter from his own party.
Source: CNBC
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