Oil futures head into Monday primed for a jump after weekend missile and drone exchanges between U.S. and Iranian forces. Brent closed Friday up 5.4% for the week, but diesel outran crude — its premium over WTI neared $80 as Russian export flows collapsed.
Weekend fighting between U.S. and Iranian forces has left oil futures poised for a volatile Monday open. Tehran claimed it had closed the Strait of Hormuz, while Washington said maritime traffic continued. U.S. Central Command reported striking 140 Iranian military positions on Saturday, after attacks on commercial vessels.
Crude climbs, but fuels lead
Brent crude finished Friday at $76.01 per barrel, up 5.4% on the week. West Texas Intermediate settled at $71.41, a gain of 4%. Refined fuels, however, moved more sharply relative to the crude benchmarks they draw from.
Ultra-low sulfur diesel futures jumped 11% on Wednesday, reaching $154 per barrel — roughly $80 above WTI. That margin, the crack spread, measures what refiners earn from selling diesel and heating oil after subtracting crude costs, before other expenses.
Russian exports collapse
The diesel move tracks a sharp drop in Russian supply. Russian diesel and gasoil exports fell to 234,000 barrels a day over July 1-10, down from the 817,000 bpd typical last year. According to TechStock², one analyst said: “Every barrel it now redirects to Latin America is a barrel not going to Europe.”
Refiner shares showed mixed movement on Friday. Valero Energy closed at $280.69, down 0.2%, while Marathon Petroleum edged up 0.1% and Phillips 66 slipped 0.8%.
The week ahead
Traders now face a packed calendar. OPEC publishes its monthly oil-market report Monday, U.S. June consumer-price index data lands Tuesday, and China’s national economic report arrives Wednesday alongside U.S. weekly petroleum figures.
The open question is whether the conflict strengthens refinery margins or signals emerging demand weakness and inflation concerns.
Source: TechStock²
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