The U.S. Energy Information Administration's August short-term energy outlook lowers its 2026 forecast for U.S. liquid fuels and total energy consumption while raising the 2027 projections. Natural gas demand estimates fell for both years, while renewables and coal forecasts moved higher.
The EIA's August short-term energy outlook trims U.S. total energy consumption to 95.79 quadrillion British thermal units for 2026, down from the 95.80 qBtu projected in July. The agency raised its 2027 estimate to 97.17 qBtu from 97.13 qBtu. Actual 2025 consumption came in at 96.26 qBtu.
A quarterly breakdown in the same outlook shows demand at 24.10 qBtu in the third quarter of 2026 and 24.29 qBtu in the fourth quarter, following 25.19 qBtu in the first quarter and 22.21 qBtu in the second. The EIA projects 25.16 qBtu in the first quarter of 2027, then 22.78 qBtu, 24.58 qBtu and 24.65 qBtu across the remaining three quarters.
Liquid fuels demand forecast trimmed
For crude oil products, the EIA now expects U.S. liquid fuels consumption to average 20.63 million barrels per day in 2026, down from July's 20.70 million barrels per day estimate. The 2027 forecast rose slightly to 20.80 million barrels per day from 20.79 million barrels per day. Actual 2025 liquid fuels demand averaged 20.61 million barrels per day.
The agency cut its outlook for natural gas as well. It now sees U.S. natural gas consumption averaging 92.0 billion cubic feet per day in 2026, down from 92.1 billion cubic feet per day in July, and 94.8 billion cubic feet per day in 2027, down from 95.0 billion cubic feet per day. Actual 2025 natural gas demand was 91.9 billion cubic feet per day.
Renewables and coal forecasts revised higher
By contrast, the EIA raised its renewables outlook, now projecting 9.39 qBtu of demand in 2026 and 10.06 qBtu in 2027, up from 9.38 qBtu and 10.04 qBtu in July. Actual 2025 renewables demand reached 8.82 qBtu.
Coal demand projections also rose. The EIA now expects 416 million short tons in 2026 and 402 million short tons in 2027, up from July's estimates of 412 million short tons and 399 million short tons. Actual 2025 coal consumption stood at 452 million short tons.
Source: Rigzone
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