The U.S. Energy Information Administration cut its 2026 and 2027 oil price forecasts as shipments resume from the Persian Gulf under the U.S.-Iran agreement. The agency now sees Brent averaging $82 a barrel this year and $65 next year, with WTI following lower.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration lowered its oil price forecasts for 2026 and 2027, pointing to recovering Gulf shipments that are rebuilding depleted inventories. The agency cut its average 2026 Brent estimate to $82 a barrel from $95, and trimmed its West Texas Intermediate forecast to $76 a barrel from $88.
The cuts follow the resumption of oil shipments out of the Persian Gulf under the U.S.-Iran agreement, which is reviving production. In its latest Short Term Energy Outlook, the EIA said it expects most crude production and trade patterns to return to near pre-conflict levels by the end of this year, with most shut-in output back online in Q1 2027.
Forecasts fall further into 2027
The downgrade deepens next year. The EIA now sees Brent averaging $65 a barrel and WTI $61 in 2027, down from $79 and $74 respectively. The agency added that restocking strategic and commercial reserves would attenuate the decline in price.
That restocking runs through the agency’s inventory math. The EIA sees global inventory draws of 2.2 million barrels a day in the third quarter, compared with its previous estimate of a 7 million barrel-a-day decline. It then predicts inventory builds of 2.7 million barrels a day in the fourth quarter and 5 million barrels a day in 2027.
Market seen returning to oversupply
The near-term draws persist because much of the added tanker traffic is previously stranded oil tankers sitting inside and outside the strait, the EIA said. According to the agency: “Next year, we expect that rising oil production will result in the market shifting back to the pre-conflict state of oversupply.”
That shift in supply and demand is what pulls the forecasts down, leaving traders watching how quickly the stranded barrels clear the strait and how fast Gulf output returns.
Source: MarketScreener (Dow Jones)
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