The ADP's July private-sector employment report tops Wednesday's calendar as the last major data point before Friday's US jobs release, with weekly estimates already pointing to cooling job growth. Eurozone PMIs and producer prices add to the picture, while easing Iran-related oil risk has left EUR/USD little changed above 1.15.
ADP report previews Friday's jobs data
Markets turn to ADP's July private-sector employment report Wednesday for an early read on Friday's US jobs report. ADP's weekly estimates have already pointed toward cooling employment growth from June.
The ISM Services index for July is also due, with the earlier flash PMI pointing to an uptick in business activity. Fed voter Cook, seen as neutral, speaks in the evening, while non-voter Daly delivers keynote remarks overnight into Thursday.
Eurozone PMIs surprise higher, producer prices near a three-year peak
The euro area publishes final services and composite PMIs for July, both of which surprised to the upside in the flash release: the services gauge at 51.6, up from 49.4, and the composite reading at 51.9, versus 50.0 previously. June producer price data follows a 0.2% month-on-month rise in May and an annual rate of 5.9%, the strongest inflation reading since March 2023.
Fed policymakers split on the rate path
Kansas City Fed's Schmid, a non-voting hawk, argued that monetary policy is not yet restrictive given strong demand and investment, signalling further tightening may be needed. Philly Fed's Paulson, a voting dove, pushed back against rapid interest rate hikes, saying policy is likely already mildly restrictive and that keeping rates steady in July "was not a close call to keep rates steady (in July)", Paulson said.
EUR/USD holds above 1.15 as Iran deal eases risk
Brent crude fell below $80 a barrel from $86 after Axios reported the US was nearing a 60-day interim deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz without tolls; Trump said more clarity was expected within 48 hours. US Treasury Secretary Bessent said an agreement could come within a day or two, a move that also pulled yields lower.
Against that backdrop, EUR/USD was little changed above 1.15, even as the easing Iran risk helped push the S&P 500 to its strongest session since April and its first record close since June 2.
Source: ActionForex
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