Dutch TTF benchmark prices are hovering between €56 and €61 per megawatt-hour after Iran-Oman talks over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz failed to produce a breakthrough. Iranian officials have ruled out a full reopening of the waterway, which carries roughly 19-20% of global LNG trade. The disruption, which began in February 2026, already drove a 44% surge in European gas prices by May.
European natural gas prices climbed in early August as talks between Iran and Oman over shipping arrangements in the Strait of Hormuz failed to generate optimism about a return to normal LNG flows. Dutch TTF benchmark prices hovered between €56 and €61 per megawatt-hour around August 10, reflecting a market that has largely priced in the expectation that the crisis isn't ending anytime soon.
The Strait of Hormuz is the narrow waterway between Iran and the Arabian Peninsula through which roughly 19-20% of all global LNG trade passes. When that route is blocked, or even partially restricted, the effects reach every natural gas-importing nation on the continent.
Talks reach "final stages" without a reopening
Iranian and Omani officials have reportedly been working toward a framework agreement for managing shipping traffic through the Strait. The talks are described as being in their final stages, which in diplomatic language can mean anything from days to months.
But Iranian officials have explicitly ruled out a full reopening of the waterway. Whatever agreement emerges will apparently focus on traffic-management protocols rather than restoring the pre-crisis status quo.
The disruption traces back to February 2026, when Iranian military actions and the US response that followed led to significant curtailment of LNG shipping through the chokepoint. Europe, which sources approximately 12-14% of its LNG from Qatar via this route, has been particularly exposed.
Prices already up 44% since February
Current levels, while elevated, mark a more settled market than earlier this year. Between February and May 2026, European gas prices surged 44% as the initial shock of the Strait disruption worked through the system.
The €56-61/MWh range reflects two forces pulling against each other. The structural loss of Strait supply keeps a floor under prices, while European storage levels and alternative supply routes prevent the kind of spike that marked the crisis's early weeks.
Oman mediates, but a fix may not follow
Oman's role as mediator fits its position: the sultanate shares the Strait with Iran and has historically maintained functional relationships with both Tehran and Western capitals.
Even a successful framework agreement might not materially change the supply picture. Managed traffic protocols could allow some increased flow, but the volumes would likely fall well short of pre-crisis levels.
Source: Crypto Briefing
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