European natural gas prices fell 8.6% at the Amsterdam open on Monday after the United States paused its strikes on Iran and Tehran signaled a halt to retaliatory attacks. The Dutch TTF benchmark had hit its highest level in a year on Friday. Europe still faces a refill problem: Qatari LNG flows have not recovered, and storage is tracking the second-lowest level for this time of year in 15 years.
Europe's benchmark natural gas prices plunged by 8.6% at the open in Amsterdam on Monday as the United States paused strikes on Iran over the weekend and Tehran signaled a halt to retaliatory attacks across the Middle East.
The August 2026 contract of the Dutch TTF Natural Gas Futures slumped by as much as 8.58% to $66.29 (58.12 euros) per megawatt-hour as of 6:46 a.m. Amsterdam time, down from Friday's intraday high of over $73 (64 euros) per MWh. Oil moved the same way in Asian trade, with Brent Crude dropping to $90 per barrel.
Friday's price was the highest in a year
Europe's gas benchmark had surged over the past two weeks amid the renewed hostilities, and Monday's retreat came from the multi-month highs of last week. Friday's price was the highest over the past year, as threats to energy flows in the Middle East grew amid the Houthi blockade of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, adding to the near-closed Strait of Hormuz.
Meanwhile, the market hopes for a diplomatic push to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and help get Qatar's LNG out of the Persian Gulf.
Refill targets remain at risk
The de-escalation over the weekend is good news for Europe, but until Qatari flows recover, EU gas storage levels are at risk of lagging behind the bloc's refill targets ahead of the next heating season. The renewed hostilities in the middle of July put an abrupt end to the recovery of Qatari LNG flows.
It's unclear when and how more supply could come out of the Middle East to ease the pressure on the LNG market, in which Europe is losing the competition with Asia for supply. Europe is heading for the second-lowest level of gas storage for this time of year in 15 years and well below the five-year average, which has prompted a race against time to procure LNG for the winter.
Source: Oilprice.com
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